Leave gets a welcome in the Valleys
Wales voted 64.8 per cent to 35.2 per cent for staying in the Common Market the last time it was asked back in 1975. Back then, Neil Kinnock was in the minority “No” camp.
We spoke to him in the South East Valleys of Wales, in some of the very constituencies that are today leading the charge towards the exit door of Europe, in seats including his own old constituency where Ukip were getting 20 per cent or thereabouts of the vote in the 2015 general election. Most of their vote was coming off Labour’s tally.
The battle for the Welsh Assembly shows signs of repeating that showing and some pundits think it could be strengthening the Leave vote in Wales.
Polls across Wales are a little too infrequent for comfort, psephologists say, but they do seem to point to a shift towards Leave over the last two months or so.
Neil Kinnock has journeyed from non-believer to high priest at the EU temple in Brussels, a commissioner for a decade. He believes that his fellow countrymen and women are sliding a little into doubt but come polling day will pull back.
He rejects the argument that the UK should spend the money it sends to Brussels on itself. He says the net contribution is lower than some claim and is good value for money. You can listen to his thoughts here.
Amongst Labour MPs you hear anger at the brake they think the Welsh First Minister and others have put on EU campaigning. Carwyn Jones and his allies worry that canvassers for Labour AM candidates who bring up Europe on the doorstep might get pushback from voters who switch to Ukip. Better to leave the EU talk until later, they argue, after the May elections.
Pro-Remain Welsh MPs worry this is a recipe for disaster. They say they can’t duck questions about Europe when voters ask them about it on the doorstep. And they worry they need to build the argument and start evangelising for a cause that has diminishing following in the Welsh Valleys in particular. One Welsh Labour MP said the call to hold back on EU talk was “a bloody outrage” and risked handing victory to Leave.
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