29 Nov 2011

Autumn statement: expect a marked deterioration since March

I had a track through past speeches from George Osborne to give you a flavour of how much things have deteriorated since the March Budget. Imagine him standing up today and saying, as he did in March:  “we have already asked the British people for what is needed, and today we do not need to ask for more.”

I’ll bet he will not be repeating this proud boast from March either: “the size of the task of repairing Britain’s finances is unchanged.” Nor, I suspect, this line from before the election: “soaring national debt…sits like a vulture poised to swoop on a sustainable British recovery.”

Probably sounded better in 2009.

 

But borrowing is set to rocket still more to the sort of numbers that George Osborne ridiculed in Labour’s plans. Based on his past efforts, the FT’s Chris Giles seems to have cloned the Treasury forecasting machine so his £30b black hole prediction is worth a read. That’s a £30b (or so) black hole on top of the cuts programme already in place, in circumstances of anaemic growth and the looming threat of a global depression if the eurozone collapses.

Oh, and I didn’t mention the demographic timebomb that means we have to do something like this all over again after mopping up the blood after the current crisis.

Tweets by @garygibbonblog

2 reader comments

  1. Philip Edwards says:

    Gary,

    You have to larf.

    I mean, “soaring national debt”?

    Whatever happened to the bankers’ ripoff? Have Georgie Boy’s chums got away with kleptomania AGAIN?

    Those Bullingdon Boys might be the biggest gang of liars since Adolf Hitler but they sure know how to stick up for each other.

  2. Citizen Smith says:

    Waves of recession will eventually get bigger and more devastating ending in a final tsunami. The economists are working the wrong macroeconomic model and the politicians trying to solve the problem in the wrong way. Unless the governments and economists start to take notice of alternative macroeconomic models then the next depression will be worse than the last. The consequences will be chaos and anarchy and events worse than those of the 30s and 40s.
    Time to start listing to some alternative economoists. Check out recent Steve Keen interviews.

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