G20 smothered by eurozone crisis

There’s a eurozone members meeting at 9.30 UK time starting here in Cannes (for those of them who are here) before the formal start of the G20 (ah, yes – that’s why we’re here isn’t it?). At last night’s meeting between the Germans, the French and the Greeks it’s not entirely clear what concrete assurances were extracted from the Greeks apart from an early date for the referendum (if it happens).

The talk in the press conferences last night was about how the referendum will be about whether Greece is “in” or “‘out” of the euro, but that doesn’t necessarily appear to mean that this is what the question will be on the ballot paper (if the referendum happens). It means that is how Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy (and George Papandreou if not all his cabinet) would like the debate to be framed.

And if you look at recent opinion polls in Greece you can see why. Though there was nearly 60 per cent against the bail-out deal in a poll last weekend in Greece, there was a majority still wanting to stay in the euro. But if the government falls on Friday and there are elections, that could be a trickier thing for the Germans and the French to “frame” because the opposition party in Greece will probably carry on talking about “renegotiating the deal” and will insist it is not against Greece being in the euro only against the current terms being opposed by the eurozone “solvents.”

It wouldn’t look very good for the German chancellor to be taking sides in and trying to shape an entire national election in Greece. In some ways, the horror of the referendum looks preferable.

By the way, if the “solvents” want Greece to believe the Big Brother eviction threat they may feel they need to draft some credible protocols that make it happen because the founding fathers of the eurozone conspicuously didn’t.

Eyes in finance today will be on the new European Central Bank chief’s first full press comference in the job. With one twitch of his eyebrow, Mario Draghi could calm markets (and spread neurosis through Germany). He could say the ECB will buy eurozone members’ debt in perpetuity, not, as now, with a cut-off date, a heavy heart and a certain degree of covert activity.

But no-one’s expecting anything so definitive.

A friend who’s known a few summits suggested the following caption for this celebrated pic;

“I know it needs a little work but there’s no chain and we’ll take cash for a quick sale.”