19 Feb 2016

EU summit nears conclusion – what next for Downing Street?

It looks like the EU summit could be nearing its conclusion.

That would mean a Cabinet meeting in Downing Street tomorrow, after which some of the ministers who have decided to back Leave will be on parade.

The Conservative Party has wrestled with the demons of its schism on Europe for decades. Any moment now comes a moment of truth.

The referendum and the renegotiation were conceived as a way to buy off insurgents in the Tory Party desperate for an in/out vote.

David Cameron didn’t want the demand to knock him off course in the last Parliament or infect coverage in the run up to the last election with distractions like separate manifestos from pro-referendum candidates and endless coverage about a divided party.

So he conceded an in/out vote to buy a truce. To mix the metaphors a little, but staying pugilistic, he’s opted for a controlled explosion which he hopes will limit the damage.

How controlled will it actually be?

A few weeks ago, David Cameron thought his forces would be in better shape at this point. He thought Michael Gove’s indecision would end with him back in his camp. He thought Boris Johnson was pretty safely on side.

We know Michael Gove has decided to jump to Leave. Boris Johnson may have got mangled by his own tactical ploys and ended up in the Leave camp by accident.

One or both of them gives intellectual cover to Tory MPs who were hovering over which way to go.

There’s talk of 100+ Tory MPs declaring for Leave and that brings pressure on others.

One prominent Leave campaigner said those still wavering won’t have the comfort of numbers on the Remain side, “their associations will want to know ‘why haven’t you come out with us?'”

This is a landslip moment David Cameron desperately wants to avoid. The powers of patronage and authority of office have already been deployed behind the scenes.

Some of those Tories declaring for Leave have said they intend to keep a low profile. One minister talks of giving an interview to his local media and then keeping his head down.

Others speak of making a statement and then leaving it at that, not wanting to be seen with some of the Leave campaigners who dominate the coverage and aren’t their cup of tea, Will the Tortoise Tory Euro-sceptics, poking their head out then pulling it right back in, mean the landslip doesn’t quite happen and the explosion doesn’t bring collateral damage?

The first test will come with the tone of interviews with Tory ministers who depart from the government line. But that is not the last test.

With weeks of campaigning ahead the challenge will be not to get ratty when your opponent rubbishes all your underlying assumptions, questioning your basic command of economics, your regard for national security and your sanity.

Tomorrow could bring a bit of a moment in the battle between the divided camps on the Leave side.

One Vote Leave campaigner said he thought the Cabinet dissidents would give a shot in the arm to his preferred campaign which had been taking a lot of incoming recently from the rival Leave.eu campaign and the organisation its now backing, Grassroots Out or “GO.”

Tweets by @garygibbonc4