David Cameron to EU: no rush!
I’m not convinced the PM is truly relaxed about whether he gets an early deal in Brussels or not. He told a Davos gathering he wasn’t in a hurry. Could’ve fooled Europe.
If a deal isn’t sealed in Brussels on 18th/19th February, there have been contingency plans talked about for a one-off special summit in the first week of March. The government believes that would still allow it to call its referendum for either 16th or 23rd June.
There would still be objections voiced about this – the Welsh and Scottish governments have made objections known to Whitehall about a campaign that could trample over their contests in May, as has Tory London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith.
But the Government thinks it has marshalled the precedents and arguments to knock back such arguments and has bigger fish to fry. Both “In” and “Out” campaigners are agreed on one thing: the earlier the referendum the better for the government..
David Cameron also believes that the longer the toxic smell of Euro division hangs around his party the harder it will be to reunite it.
Also he’s itching to get his social reform agenda centre stage if he can, and knows that will only get a fleeting look-in on the news agenda while a Europe referendum is in the offing.
One minister itching to vote “Leave” mocked the Prime Minister for going to Davos to recruit businesses to the “Remain” camp at the same time as gagging ministers who want to leave from voicing their opinions.
Ministers who want to leave the EU want to be free to speak as soon as possible after any deal is struck. Downing Street has ruled they can’t do that until the Cabinet has met to discuss the deal.
They’re acutely aware that the Prime Minister will try to frame the renegotiation to suit his own purposes, immediately blasting the media with positive spin the moment his triumphant negotiation is finished.
They’ve told No.10 that they must be released from their surly bonds and allowed to speak out as soon as is possible after the deal is struck.
One minister said that if the Prime Minister leaves Brussels at 1pm there should be a Cabinet meeting in London that evening. If the Prime Minister leaves Brussels late afternoon/early evening on Friday 19th, there should be a Cabinet meeting Saturday morning.
A draft agreement (with holes and many brackets) is being worked on to be put on the table in talks next week in Brussels.
The biggest challenge still looks like how to come up with something that addresses the Tory Manifesto pledge to withdraw in-work benefits from EU workers in the UK until they’ve been in the UK for 4 years.
David Cameron repeated in Davos that the manifesto pledge policy remained “on the table.”
But he is clearly thinking withdrawing it if the German government idea of redefining “in work” can deliver something similar. You would only be deemed “in work” if your income put you above the level of income that attracts “in work” welfare support.
It’s a big change that could attract significant objections from some EU countries. What constitutes “self-sufficiency” in different jurisdictions? Isn’t it discrimination dressed up in different colours?
But it has the imprimatur of the German government as things stand, and that gives David Cameron hope that this “work stream” succeeds, maybe even before lunchtime on Feburary 19th.
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