Would Cameron sack ministers over Europe?
The prime minister has said reporters over-interpreted his words yesterday which made the front pages of the Telegraph, Guardian, FT, and Mail today. The papers all reported that the PM had ruled that ministers who wanted to campaign against an “in” vote in the referendum would have to resign their office to do so.
Today, Mr Cameron said that wasn’t what he had been trying to say in a briefing yesterday at the G7 summit in Germany. He would not be taking such a strong line on the issue because he has not yet decided whether his renegotiation will work.
He has previously said that he “rules nothing out” in the referendum (he could himself campaign to come out of the EU if the EU partners didn’t yield enough ground in the negotiations). That, he said, remains the position, so it was not his intention to start slapping down collective responsibility discipline rules on a hypothetical that might never happen.
The government position is that ministers have to support the “renegotiation” strategy but do not yet have to declare or walk the ministerial plank for their heresy as there is, as yet, no official line to rebel against.
Why is No. 10 so jumpy about all this? It recognises that how David Cameron manages the EU referendum could have major implications for the future well-being of the Conservative party.
A number of ministers are ready to resign if the renegotiation does not transform the relationship with the EU. Amongst them could be Iain Duncan Smith, the welfare secretary, who at cabinet two weeks ago made a point of bringing up the whole issue of whether ministers who opposed David Cameron’s line on the referendum would have to resign. I’m told he didn’t get much of an answer.
No. 10 is acutely aware of the danger of resignations destabilising the party but other dangers lurk. If “principled” resignees end up flowing to the backbenches, leaving “careerist” types on the front benches, it creates a very unhappy dynamic in the party.
If Ukip runs the “out” side without much other input from other parties, it creates the danger of Ukip in some way replicating the SNP’s success in the Scotland referendum. Just as the SNP tended to dominate the “yes” campaign in Scotland and came to “own” the “yes” vote, boosting its success in the general election last month, so, some government figures worry, political refugees who find themselves in the “no” camp in an EU referendum could come to look to Ukip for political leadership in subsequent elections.
A more mixed political leadership to the “no” camp in an EU referendum might be a better thing for David Cameron (assuming he is chuffed with his renegotiation and seeks to sell it to voters as a good deal).
Keeping dissenting ministers in the government ranks could moderate the debate and might incentivise them to keep their criticisms political and pull back from attacks on the Tory leadership for negotiating a lame deal with Europe.
Around parliament this morning there were Tory MPs lining up to condemn the morning headlines as a sign of “bullying” by No. 10, “idiotic” pressure that was not needed and a massive misjudgement.
No. 10 will feel that the furore created by this morning’s headlines is particularly unhelpful when it is about to launch the referendum bill. Any antagonising of backbench “better off out” types risks emboldening them to rally behind amendments that, for instance, could curtail the spending power of the much better off “better off in” side.
No. 10 will also feel that the anger around Westminster today amongst the more hardline Tory Euro-sceptics gives a taster of the sort of trouble David Cameron could be in for if he orders ministers who want “out” of Europe out of his government.
Some close to the PM believe he is already leaning towards the lenient approach pioneered by Harold Wilson in 1975: letting ministers keep their jobs while they campaign on opposing side in the referendum. The last 24 hours might have made him lean a bit more in that direction.
But he’s not deciding or declaring his hand just now and has a few moments at the end of this summit to ponder it all in the shadow of an Alpine peak whose name will forever be etched on his memory.
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