Cameron is still hampered by the Conservative brand

David Cameron on Webcameron says this speech has got to answer the public’s questions: “Why us? Why now? Why me?”

They seem to be relatively happy with the “me” bit… it’s the “us” that remains a dragging anchor on the Tory polling.

A senior Tory strategist was explaining to me that he is convinced that the party has stuck at 40-something not 50-something in the polls because of the Tory brand drag.

The public seems to like David Cameron but still thinks the Tories haven’t changed.

In his view the Cameron project, trying to compress Labour’s 18-year journey to detoxification (well more like 14 if you start it from 1983 when Neil Kinnock comes in) into four years has, inevitably, meant they’re not in as strong a position as Tony Blair was just before 1997.

But they hope that momentum on their part, demoralisation and disintegration in the government, will help them to a surge in the coming months. Speech is due at 2.15pm.

Related: Dannatt, not champagne, gives Tories the biggest conference hiccup