Cameron, Europe, Boris and moving on
How long these talks take could depend on how long some countries fancy showboating. There appears to be a deal nearly formed, like a cooling jelly. France may want to parade its European values, the Eastern European countries may want to advertise how much they’re in touch with their electorates. But this should, by rights, be a deal that’s presented tomorrow.
If it’s done by lunchtime, a Cabinet could be held as soon as tea-time.
Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith would be the biggest names from the Cabinet leading a march to the Leave camp. Speculation is mounting, not least in Downing Street, whether Boris Johnson has decided, late in the day, to walk to that side too.
There is hypothetical-based polling data to suggest that if Boris Johnson backs Leave he acts as a magnet for Tory voters neutralising the pull that David Cameron supporting Remain has on them in the other direction.
Some in the Remain camp say they think they can over-come such a setback and Boris’ potency has been over-stated. Some friends of Mr Johnson think that Downing Street is briefing that he’s made up his mind when he hasn’t. You may have to wait a bit longer to wait to discover how this one ends.
Others in the Remain camp say all this talk of bigger name defections than originally expected is worrying but not panicking. Michael Gove, it’s been claimed, has little voter reach beyond the red trouser wearing Tory shire core, though his current work as Justice Minister has made a few people look at him a little differently. One Remain-supporting Tory MP said “Gove gives intellectual cover” to Tories hesitating on the brink. Boris gives them euphoria.
Interestingly, Boris Johnson’s floated idea of a second referendum, de-risking your first Leave referendum vote by claiming that only a second one would trigger Brexit, has been spotted by Europhile nations. France and Belgium are talking about getting a line in the communique (no text on this yet) which explicitly spells out that the deal is the deal and the vote in June is decisive. David Cameron won’t mind that. The last thing Project Fear The Sequel wants is to de-risk a Leave vote.
There’s talk the Prime Minister is planning an address to the nation across the main TV channels on Saturday, if all goes to plan. He and supportive colleagues will be using the weight and trappings of office to convey all the authority they can muster in the days ahead. And when Mr Cameron, as expected, starts hitting the campaign trail soon after he’s addressed Parliament on Monday next week, the plan is that this negotiation, all the talk of squared brackets and protocols, will be so much dust. The focus will turn to the bigger issues on which David Cameron believes he can really win: the economy, jobs, trade and security.
The other 27 EU leaders queuing up to get off the subject of this negotiation (and on to migration) have, strangely, a shared objective with David Cameron. The re-negotiation has not proved to be voter catnip. Some voters scratch their heads as they hear of Child Benefit to EU worker children who live outside the UK and are staggered to think it happens at all not thrilled to hear it may be restricted for new arrivals. The dense detail of the talks is a tough sell. Jobs, interest rates, exports, staying close to countries to fight the same mortal enemies… that’s the stuff David Cameron wants to get on to.
For him, the sooner the better.