5m
13 Jan 2025

Biden ‘fighting for foreign policy legacy’ says Richard Haass

Data Correspondent and Presenter

We spoke to veteran US diplomat and president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, as outgoing US President Joe Biden gives a farewell speech ahead of the inauguration.

Ciaran Jenkins: Richard, President Biden is currently giving a speech praising himself. Does that suggest a certain amount of insecurity? How would you grade his performance on foreign policy?

Richard Haass: Look, all presidents fight for their legacies and Mr. Biden is at that period of his presidency. He’ll be giving a farewell address, I expect, in the coming days. He’s right to point to Ukraine as, by and large, an accomplishment. He has strengthened US alliances for the most part in Europe and in Asia. The problem is his investment in Ukraine is precarious – depends very much on the policies of his successor. Relations with Russia are strange, to say the least. You had the ignominious US withdrawal from Afghanistan. So one can go around the world – and I would simply say that, yes, while there’s been some accomplishments, again what I’m struck by is how much is really in the hands of his successor. And the problem for Mr. Biden is that his successor, at least if one takes what he says at face value, doesn’t share a lot of Mr. Biden’s priorities.

Ciaran Jenkins: We’ll come on to President Trump, as he will be next week, in a minute. But the US administration, Biden’s administration, is saying tonight they think a deal is there for the taking in terms of Gaza, a ceasefire deal and a hostage deal this week. How much does his legacy hinge on getting that deal done in the next seven days?

Richard Haass: I wouldn’t say a whole lot. It would be welcome, obviously. The critics will still point to what’s happened over the last, what, 15 months. And then the question is, again, what comes next in the Middle East? Legacies are not snapshots. They are moving pictures. The good news for Mr. Biden in the Middle East is not so much because of what he’s done, but what’s happened in Syria, the weakness in Iran, the decapitation of Hezbollah – that the Middle East actually has potential now. There’s opportunities there for potentially diplomatic breakthroughs that didn’t exist when he took office.

Ciaran Jenkins: And President Biden has been saying in the last few minutes that America is stronger as he leaves office and their enemies are weaker. Certainly, you can see how Iran…that would make sense. But China, Russia, are they really weaker after Biden’s reign?

Richard Haass: The answer is no, I would say. Russia’s position militarily, I would say, even though it’s been to some extent exposed, it’s not been all that capable. Its defence industrial base, its ability to churn out equipment and ammunition is quite impressive and has a network of partners in North Korea, Iran and China, it didn’t have before. China is going through economic difficulty, but it’s economically and militarily stronger than it was four years ago. Also, by the way, the United States is stronger in some ways. The economy here has done extraordinarily well. Inflation’s down, jobs are up, growth has been impressive. So, again, it’s not a one-sided picture.

Ciaran Jenkins: Let’s turn, in the time we have left then, to Donald Trump. He’ll be president in seven days time. He said he’d end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Do you see him doing the sort of deal that Biden wouldn’t do, a deal that might betray Ukraine?

Richard Haass: Well, what we know is you won’t end the war within 24 hours. There’s, thank God, there’s something else between the two choices you give me – between more of the same, which is unsustainable – and betrayal. I think there’s a chance for a respectable ceasefire, not peace, but ceasefire. The United States has to continue backing Ukraine. And we’ve got to persuade Mr. Putin that time is not on his side. I think that is potentially there.

Ciaran Jenkins: You’ve got Trump’s allies, for the minute, very concerned about tariffs – never mind their enemies. I mean what’s going to happen there, briefly?

Richard Haass: Well, again, we don’t know to what extent Mr. Trump is looking at tariffs as a means to an end, as an end to themselves. My guess is in some cases like Mexico, they’ll trade them for trade changes in immigration policy. With China, tariffs could be there – they’re already there – you can have new ones for some time to come.