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Do Tony's crime stats add up?

By Channel 4 News

Updated on 25 September 2006

The PM says that, despite publicity to the contrary, crime figures are actually down.


Crime (Reuters)

The Claim
"Even crime is - despite all the publicity - actually down"
Prime Minister Tony Blair, Sunday AM, 24 September 2006

Background
In the run up to the Labour Party Conference in Manchester today, Prime Minister Tony Blair was interviewed by the BBC's Andrew Marr on the Sunday AM show.

Despite ducking questions of inner-party politics and leadership contests, the PM claimed Labour was responsible for a reduction in crime since it came to power in 1997.

"Even crime, despite all the publicity, is actually down," said the PM.

But can Blair really take credit for this? Have crime rates really fallen?

The Labour Party certainly thinks so - on its website one of its top 50 'achievements' is that it has cut crime by 35 per cent, although a reference to the source of that data is not given.

"Significant falls in crime show we can make our streets and homes genuinely safer, in contrast to the steady rise in crime under the Tories," says a statement on the party's website.

Analysis
It's a bold claim to make and one that was used in the run up to last year's general election. But as pointed out last year, it really depends on where you get your information from; Michael Howard last year used contradictory statistics to argue that crime was actually rising.

There are two ways overall crime is measured in the UK. The British Crime Survey (BCS) asks 38,000 people about their experiences and opinions of crime. But it fails to record some categories of violent crime such as murder, rape and crime against under-16s.

Most recent figures from the BCS show that overall crime figures have not budged much since last year.

Since comparative crime reporting began in 1981, the number of reported incidents this year is predicted to be just over 10 million - the same level as in 1981. That figure peaked in 1995 to around 19 million and has steadily declined since.

Obviously these figures are favourable with the Labour party as it seems crime has fallen during its time in power.

But figures from police-recorded crime tells a different story. This data includes violent, under-16 and commercial crime but the downside is that not all reported crime is recorded by the police - especially if believed to be unsubstantiated. And recorded crime figures could count one crime where many people have been a victim.

Since 1981 there has been a general increase in crime from 3 million recorded incidents way back then to 5.5 in the latest results.

Although last year there was a drop of one per cent in reported crime, since the Labour Party came into power crime has actually risen from 4.5 million in 1997 to 5.5 million recorded incidents today. So Blair's claims are false under these numbers.

However - all is not as simple as it looks. In 2002 the police improved the way they report crime to incorporate a higher number of offences. That means because the reporting methods changed (to become National Crime Recording Standard) the number of categories of crimes rose, which meant the numbers also did.

So, all in all, you can't really make any assumptions based on the data.



FactCheck Rating: 3 (How ratings work)

Verdict
On one count Tony Blair's comments tally with the most recent available statistics on crime. But other data contradict his claims.

It's a tough call to say how much crime there really is, but in this case statistics are certainly a politician's best friend - and his worst.

Sources
All crime: long-term national recorded crime trend
All crime: British Crime Survey data
Crime in England: a summary of the main statistics (PDF)
Crime in England and Wales: quarterly update to December 2005 (PDF)
Crime in England and Wales 2005/06 (PDF)
FactCheck, 21 April 2005: why we should all be afraid of crime statistics
Are Lib Dems crime-busters? Labour's top 50 achievements Home Office Crime statistics

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