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Iran President Ahmadinejad 'attack' attempt

By Channel 4 News

Updated on 04 August 2010

The Iranian president's motorcade has come under attack this morning, President Ahmadinejad's office has confirmed.

Bodyguards react after the sound of an explosion behind the entourage of Iranian President Ahmadinejad as he is welcomed to Hamadan (Credit: Reuters)

The source in the office of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a home-made explosive device had exploded, but that the president was fine.

Ahmadinejad was travelling from an airport in the western city of Hamadan to give a speech in a sports arena when the attack took place.

According to the office's source, one person has been arrested.

However the Iranian state-run Press TV denied the attack in a broadcast, saying the explosion was due to a firecracker.

Ahmadinejad appeared on live Iranian television at the sports stadium. He looked unperturbed and made no mention of any assault.

The hardline populist leader has enemies in conservative and reformist circles in the Islamic Republic as well as abroad, following his crack down on opposition since the disputed June 2009 presidential election.

President Ahmadinejad's convoy in crowded street - (Reuters)

Contradictory TV reports
Al Arabiya said an attacker had thrown a bomb at Ahmadinejad's convoy before being detained.

It cited its own sources as saying the bomb had hit a car carrying journalists and presidential staff. There has been no immediate claim of responsibility.

The main Iranian state television channel remained silent about the explosion and the English language state news channel Press TV denied there had been an attack.

The semi-official Fars news agency initially reported a man had thrown a home-made grenade, but later changed its story to say a firecracker had been set off by a man who was excited to see the president.

Ahmadinejad made a speech on Monday in Tehran at a conference of expatriate Iranians. In it he claimed he was the target of an assassination plot by Israel.

He said: "The stupid Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me."

Ahmadinejad's government is under pressure economically following more foreign sanctions being imposed over the state's nuclear energy programme. 

Iranian leaders have responded to the pressure by accusing the West of plotting against the Islamic Republic. They accuse domestic opponents of being backed by foreign powers.

Economic analysts fear the sanctions will have an affect on the world's fifth biggest oil exporter. And Ahmadinejad's reaction to this alleged attack could be telling on the oil market.

Head of Natural Resources Risk Management at Bank of Ireland, Paul Harris said: "I expect that any backlash there might be from Ahmadinejad will be far more important to the oil market than the initial attack itself.

"You would expect the oil market to react if there is any attempt to link the attack to the current tensions with the West and the ramping up of sanctions.

"Prices haven't moved today but we've just had a very strong rally. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East is broadly priced in, especially following yesterday's incident on the Israel-Lebanon border."

President Ahmadinejad meets Iranians - (Reuters)

Who's behind the attack?
IHS Global Insight Middle East analyst Gala Riani said it would be difficult to say who was behind today's attempt: "It wouldn't be surprising if the president's office tries to play this down. It's very difficult to say who could be behind it.

"There are assorted militant groups operating in Iran. The opposition hasn't gone away since the election although they are very limited in what they can do.

"They are not one coherent movement so it's not impossible that some members could have taken it upon themselves to do something like this."

As to the impact of the event, Riani said: "Ahmadinejad has taken himself out of Tehran into the provinces to speak to people more than any other president. We will have to see whether this is serious enough that he cuts back doing that. There have been occasions when people have thrown things at him or heckled him but that has been it."

Iran expert Baqer Moin said the location of the alleged attack is very unusual. Baqer Moin said: "Hamadan is a stable area without ethnic or local tension... Let's wait and see who they accuse, an internal or an external enemy."

London-based Iranian opposition activist Mehrdad Khonsari says Ahmadinejad may have to look closer to home, before accusing outsiders for the attack.

Khonsari said: "Ahmadinejad has been expecting this sort of thing. He said earlier that there were plots to assassinate him by foreign adversaries such as Israel and the United States. He made reference to that, but of course no reference to the dissatisfied people of Iran.

"Talking about these things or even trying to act in a manner that Ahmadinejad has in raising the alarm is quite different than something like this actually taking place. It is obviously a reflectin of the fact that all is not well in Iran and control is not total, contrary to conventional wisdom."

Theodore Karasik, a Dubai-based security analyst said: "It has to do with growing discontent with his rule, that now the conservatives are turning on him because of the economy and the position Iran is in because of the fourth wave of sanctions.

"This happened in a provincial area where he's supposed to be more popular. If he gets people riled up there, then that's not good.

"It could also be tied to what's happening in Iraq. This could be a signal to stay out of Iraq as the Americans withdraw. It's just speculation, but another possible angle."

Metsa Rahimi, Janusian analyst, said: "If it is more serious, they may well put the blame on Israel and the West, although I think they are both very unlikely.

"Overall, I don't think it will have too much effect on relations with the West over sanctions.

"If it was an attack and not a firecracker, it could well have been a lone opposition supporter but unlikely to have been an organised effort by opposition officials to kill the president."

Middle East analyst Marie Bos does not think it will destabilise Iran: "Our belief is it is most likely a local group rather than anything with international connections.

"It is most likely either a Kurdish group which has clashed with security forces in the northwest of the country recently, or tied to local grievances linked to poor economic circumstances.

"On the occasion of Ahmadinejad's last visit to this part of the country, protesters interrupted his speech, chanting slogans."

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