FactCheck: child abuse deaths
Updated on 12 January 2009
How does Ofsted's estimate for the number of children who die as a result of neglect compare with previous estimates?
The claim
Graham Stuart MP: "Your report covers the period between 1 April 2007 and 31 August 2008. That is where the 282 children are mentioned. So that I can be absolutely clear, you are saying that 72 of the 282 children were not killed as a result of neglect?"
Christine Gilbert, Chief Inspector of Education, Children's Services and Skills: "That is right."
Stuart: "So in other words, 210 were during that period. Is that your evidence?"
Gilbert: "Yes."
Evidence to children, schools and families select committee, 10 December 2008
The background
The series of errors that led to the death of Baby P - who received at least 60 visits from social workers in the 17 months before he died at the hands of his mother and two men - has focused new attention on the child protection system.
The death of any child from abuse is a shocking and serious matter - but how often does it happen?
In its annual report Ofsted, the education and children's services watchdog, said it was notified by local authorities of 282 deaths of children in the 17-month period up to the end of August 2008.
This is equivalent to nearly four children a week, in contrast with government estimates of around one child a week, and something which The Observer suggested was far too high.
Last month the head of Ofsted, Christine Gilbert, defended the figure when questioned by MPs.
On closer examination, 72 of the deaths included were not caused by abuse or neglect, she said, but this left 210 that were.
So how was this figure worked out, and how does it compare to previous estimates?
The analysis
Let's compare Ofsted's figure with two other estimates.
When a child dies or is seriously injured and abuse or neglect is known or suspected, a serious case review should be carried out locally.
The department for children, schools and families said its database showed 81 serious case reviews were carried out in 2007.
Children's charity the NSPCC said it used official homicide statistics, which show that roughly one to two children in England and Wales are killed at the hands of another person each week, and one child is killed at the hands of a parent or carer every 10 days.
However, a spokesperson for the charity said it had always suspected these figures would be an underestimate as, for example, some cases may not get to court or might not be enough evidence to prosecute.
So do Ofsted's figures give the truer picture?
Ofsted would be notified of the death of a child in two circumstances: when there was a suspicion of abuse or neglect in the child's death, or when the child who died was in local authority care.
The 282 figure quoted in Ofsted's report is a total of these factors. When the watchdog examined these figures, it found that abuse or neglect was not suspected to be, or was not found to be after investigations, a factor in the deaths of 72 of these children.
"An analysis of these figures shows that the vast majority of these tragic deaths, some 210, happened in circumstances where abuse or neglect was known or suspected," said an Ofsted spokesperson.
"Amongst the cases are murders by parent or carer, neglect, physical abuse, death by accident where neglect occurred, deaths where domestic violence was a factor, suicides, and house fires caused by arson, where the child or children had been suffering abuse or neglect and this was a factor in the circumstances of their death."
Ofsted's figures do, therefore, use a wider definition of a death by abuse than, say counting the number of deaths for which a parent or carer is found in court to have been responsible.
A breakdown of the figures, supplied to FactCheck, suggests that some of the circumstances of the deaths are less clear cut than the claim that the child died as a result of abuse would suggest.
For example, 16 of those included died from "unexplained causes" - where the "outcomes of police or coroners' enquiries are inconclusive but abuse or neglect are suspected" and nine were shot or stabbed by another young person "where abuse or neglect was a contributory factor".
The verdict
Ofsted uses a wider-reaching system of counting deaths from abuse than the homicide figures quoted by the NSPCC.
The inclusion in Ofsted's figures of, for example, young people who killed themselves and were suspected to have suffered abuse or neglect, may not necessarily tally with everyone's understanding of what a death from abuse means - though it doesn't necessarily mean that they are wrong.
The sources
Ofsted annual report
NSPCC
Department for children, schools and families
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