Armed forces face brutal defence cuts
Updated on 13 January 2010
Britain's armed forces face savage cuts and could shrink by up to a fifth because of a lack of money, according to projections made by an influential military think tank.
The Royal United Services Institute believes the number of trained military personnel is set to drop from 175,000 to fewer than 142,000 by 2016.
The report was written by Malcolm Chalmers of King's College London, he predicts the 20 per cent reduction of service personnel would cause considerable upheaval with bases closed and employees made redundant.
"Continuing growth in the unit costs of UK defence capabilities, together with cuts in defence budgets, will make it impossible to preserve current numbers of service personnel and front-line capabilities," he says.
The Ministry of Defence has been struggling to balance its books as operations continue in Afghanistan but the government has said that the defence budget will not be cut at all next year.
But even being "cautiously optimistic" says Professor Chalmers, intense pressure on the government's finances means the Ministry of Defence budget was likely to fall by 11 per cent in real terms by 2016-17.
A much deeper reduction of some 15 per cent over the next three years "cannot be ruled out", Professor Chalmers added.
The problem will be made worse because the costs of employing troops and civilian personnel have been rising in real terms, as has the cost of procuring and running equipment. "
The combination of these two trends means that the next six years are likely to see a reduction in numbers of service personnel, and a commensurate reduction in numerical military capabilities like major vessels, aircraft and ground formations."
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said "Like all departments, the Ministry of Defence is facing challenging financial circumstances." "
We routinely review our spending to ensure we focus on Afghanistan and live within our means. The chancellor has already said not a penny will be cut from the defence budget next year but it is not possible to give a meaningful assessment beyond 2010/11 as future spending plans have not yet been set."
"A Strategic Defence Review will take place after the election and we welcome Professor Chalmers' contribution to the debate."