FactCheck: more people in work?
Updated on 16 April 2008
Gordon Brown told Jon Snow that there "are more people in jobs than ever before". Is he right?
The claim
"There are more people in jobs than ever before in our country."
Gordon Brown, prime minister, Channel 4 News, 16 April 2008
The background
Amid soaring mortgage costs, tax increases and falling house prices, Gordon Brown was keen to boast about the prosperous legacy of New Labour.
He told Jon Snow that more people are at work in Britain today than ever before.
But is it true, and is it a fair claim to make?
The analysis
So, how many people are in work in the UK?
Figures published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 21.95m people were in full-time jobs in the three months to February 2008.
During the same period, the number of people in part time jobs was 7.55m. That makes a total of 29.5m.
These figures - derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - include people on government training schemes, those who have a job they are temporarily away from, and those doing unpaid family work.
Quite a broad remit, but according to the ONS the overall "people in work" total is up from 28.98m the previous year.
As an aside, it's worth remembering that the LFS jobs' figures are derived from a survey of households, while an alternative ONS survey of employers - called the workforce survey - also assesses the number of jobs in Britain.
Over the past 12 months, the LFS stats suggest 510,000 more people are in jobs, while the workforce figures suggest there are 208,000 more jobs compared to this time last year. Quite a difference...
Over the past 12 months, the LFS stats suggest 510,000 more people are in jobs, while the workforce figures suggest there are 208,000 more jobs compared to this time last year. Quite a difference...
Yet whatever the root of the figures, 29.5m is indeed the highest number of people in jobs ever to be recorded in the UK. Brown was correct.
But it's worth putting this boast into the context of changes in Britain's population.
The number of people living in Blighty has risen from about 57m in 1991, to more than 60m. It is predicted to rise to over 70m by 2031.
In real terms - as far as all records show - the UK's population is as big as it has ever been. In that context, barring recession, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a record number of workers, especially as there are at least three million more people living on the island, compared to the beginning of the past decade?
With this overall growth in mind, it is worth looking at the employment rate, rather than the overall total of people in work. It allows analysis of the proportion of people with jobs.
Put simply, Britain's job market might be bigger, but is it better?
The statistics released today show the employment rate is currently at 74.9 per cent, of those of working age.
The 74.9 figure is exactly the same rate as published by the ONS for the period January-March 1971 - the furthest its current records go back.
During the past 37 years the employment rate has remained reasonably stable, peaking at 75.9 per cent in mid-1974, and slumping to a low of 67.8 per cent in mid-1983.
During the past 37 years the employment rate has remained reasonably stable, peaking at 75.9 per cent in mid-1974, and slumping to a low of 67.8 per cent in mid-1983.
Interestingly, over the same 37-year period, the proportion of the UK's total population (those of working age and above) in work has dropped from 60.8 per cent to 60.4 per cent.
But to be fair to Brown, it was 58.3 per cent when Labour came back into power in 1997.
However, if you judge the health of a labour market on the percentage of people in work, rather than the sheer volume of people in jobs, then the situation is exactly the same as it was 37 years ago.
Incredibly consistent, but not quite in keeping with implication of Brown's jobs boom boast.
Perhaps to emphasise the point, there were 980,000 people out of work in 1971, there are currently more than 1.6m. It is not a record level - because of the three million people unemployed in the mid 80s - but it shows the folly of simply working in lump sums.
Presumably, Brown would not boast about there being 620,000 more people out of work compared to 37 years ago?
It's also worth bearing in mind that today's figures show that the number of job vacancies - 687,600 - is the third highest ever recorded. Again, this is the by-product of a bigger population and therefore economy - but not the sort of thing Brown would boast about.
The verdict
In isolation, Brown's boast is correct - there are a record number of people in jobs in Britain. But it only tells half the story.
With the UK's population now at a record high, the claim is exposed as being a little less grand.
It's also undermined by the fact the proportion of people in work is exactly the same as it was 37 years ago; not quite the growth Brown's boast implied.
FactCheck rating: 3
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Every time a FactCheck article is published we'll give it a rating from zero to five.
The lower end of the scale indicates that the claim in question largely checks out, while the upper end of the scale suggests misrepresentation, exaggeration, a massaging of statistics and/or language.
In the unlikely event that we award a 5 out of 5, our factcheckers have concluded that the claim under examination has absolutely no basis in fact.
The sources
Labour market statistics (April 2008)
Employment rates 1971-2008
Population estimates for UK
Unemployment rates
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