England's World Cup draw is actually quite promising

Forget the match against Argentina (for the moment). The crunch match is against Sweden on June 2. Win that, and England could go all the way. Chris Nawrat reports

THERE ARE only seven steps to lifting the World Cup trophy aloft in Yokohama on June 30. The question is: can you get on the right stairway? Group F is called the Group of Death not only because it comprises Argentina, Sweden and Nigeria as well as England, but also because whoever qualifies in second place is in serious trouble.

The runner-up will (almost certainly) have to face France, Brazil and Argentina in successive matches in order to play against either Italy, or Germany, in the final. Those five countries have won 13 of the 16 World Cups played so far, and all eight of the last World Cups since . . . 1966.

A tall order indeed. By contrast, if England were to top Group F, they would (probably) play Uruguay, and then Russia, before meeting one of Brazil, France or Argentina in the semi-final. But then they wouldn't have had to have played all three. The hard work would have been done for them as the three favourites would have scrapped it out, until only one was left standing.

And scrapped is the operative word. In this scenario, Brazil will coast to a quarter-final clash against either France or Argentina in Shizuoka. Either way it will be a war. Against France it will be a re-run of their disastrous World Cup final four years ago when Ronaldo was forced to play when clearly he was seriously unwell.

Or it will be the old South American war between that continent's bitterest rivals - whether it be football, or anything else. Emotions will be running high in either possibility, as will yellow and red cards. Whoever comes out on top in that quarter-final is likely to have key players suspended, and the team to be physically drained.

To continue the scenario - assuming England have sauntered past Uruguay and Russia - they should have opponents in the semi-final in Saitama which, although against one of the best in the world - will be battle-weary and wounded. A victory would (inevitably) pit England against either Italy or Germany in the final. Both of which they know they can beat, as they've done it before.

That's how England can win the 17th World Cup.

But.

Beating Sweden in Saitama on June 2 is essential if this scenario is to have any credence, as the first three points are vital to the first phase of the campaign. Argentina play Nigeria on the same day. Nigeria are currently in disarray following a disappointing African Nations Cup, and debilitating internal rows. They are unlikely to have a good tournament. However, such discontent usually manifests itself after the first game.

Thus, it is quite possible that England will beat Sweden, and Nigeria draw with Argentina on June 2. Then, if England were to draw with Argentina, and Sweden to beat Nigeria in the next games, then, going into the final round of the first phase - Nigeria v England and Sweden v Argentina - the table would look like this:

 

	P	W	D	L	Pts
England	2	1	1	0	4
Sweden	2	1	0	1	3
Argentina	2	0	2	0	2
Nigeria	2	0	1	1	1