It is a famous dictum that history is written by the victors, and the terrible prospect for England is that an Australia win at The Oval would allow the world champions to reconstruct the narrative of this compelling series in their favour.

Instead of slinking back home as a side on the wane, badly beaten by a more vigorous, youthful and more imaginatively-led England team, a win would allow Australia to return with the Ashes still in their grasp, spinning tales of how they hung on to the little urn in heroic fashion in the face of England's aggressive bombardment. The difference to their reception as losers or holders of the Ashes, is as between night and day, and the difference to captain Ricky Ponting, in particular, is between hero and villain.

Put simply, if Australia win at The Oval, Ponting's 156 at Old Trafford would attain the status of myth in Ashes folklore. Within such a context, the tale is one of how a captain under siege, although outthought by his canny and eerily calm opposite number, played the defensive innings of his life to stave off defeat and keep the Ashes alive. The final chapter of that story would be of how he inspired one last heroic performance from an ageing side to fight off the young pretender.

However, if Australia were to lose, Ponting's 156 could be buried in the wider context of a 3-1 series defeat that could have been worse but for the rain that washed out Saturday's play at Old Trafford. The captain's hundred would still be regarded as a great knock under pressure but its significance would be reduced, because context is all.

The Australian captain recognised as much when he said, on the eve of this game: "If we lose we will cop a severe hammering when we get back home. There's no doubt about that. But, if we win, it won't be nearly as tough as it could have been.

"I wouldn't like to think I would be under threat of losing my captaincy if we lose because all 15 players will take responsibility. But I will take a little bit more responsibility because that's my role as captain."

Another Australian subtext which is open for reinvention is of how bad luck robbed them of their greatest fast bowler, Glenn McGrath, for the only two Tests they lost. That tale finishes with McGrath patching up his injured, ageing body to spearhead the attack at The Oval and bring home the Ashes. Such a spin would blindly ignore the fact that McGrath was actually playing at Old Trafford when, oddly enough, it was his batting that saved Australia from near-certain defeat.

The alternative ending involves England reclaiming the Ashes for the first time in 17 years at The Oval, either through a rain-affected draw, or an epoch-making win. That story would end in national jubilation, a Michael Vaughan knighthood and in England being proclaimed de facto world champions. A new era of international cricket would be heralded with England as the side to beat, promulgated as more talented, more aggressive and more innovative than Australia.

Of course, if that happened, all sense of perspective would be lost. That story would be an exaggeration because England have yet to tour Pakistan and India this winter, severe tests of any side, and must triumph in all sorts of conditions over a long period of time to match the achievements of this Australia team.

The level-headed Vaughan recognised this fact on the eve of the 5th Test match. "Even if we win we would not necessarily be the best team in the world. This would be just a stepping stone towards that goal. There are tough challenges on the sub-continent to come, for example," he said. He might have added that Australia would also have to be beaten in their own back yard.

Vaughan's sense of perspective is one of England's trump cards going into the game. England are under severe pressure, but he has a habit of getting their mindset just right for the next challenge. Ponting, by contrast, is under far more severe pressure, and will be hoping that his big guns save his own neck.

England: (from) MP Vaughan (capt), ME Trescothick, AJ Strauss, IR Bell, KP Pietersen, A Flintoff, GO Jones, AF Giles, MJ Hoggard, PD Collingwood, JM Anderson, SJ Harmison.

Australia: (expected) RT Ponting (capt), JL Langer, ML Hayden, DR Martyn, MJ Clarke, SM Katich, AC Gilchrist, SK Warne, B Lee, GD McGrath, SW Tait.

7 Sep, 2005