England must continue to play the aggressive brand of cricket that has brought them success over the past three Test matches.

Any thoughts of playing for a draw should be banished from their minds because they should remember what happened at Lord's when they sat back and ended up badly beaten. After Lord's they decided to play more aggressively and should not abandon that approach now.

However it will not be easy for England to do that because of the absence of Simon Jones. He has taken 18 wickets in the series at the lowest average and best strike rate of all the attack. Australia have struggled against swing and reverse-swing and he is one of the world's best exponents of both at the moment, so it is a huge blow to lose him.

There is no like for like replacement for Jones. Our selectors were pretty smart in ruling Chris Tremlett out of the game because there would be too much pressure on any debutant and it will come down to a choice between James Anderson and Paul Collingwood.

Anderson has lost his form and his bowling has been all over the place for the past two seasons. There have been some signs of improvement but it would be too great a gamble to pick such a youngster in this game. No one doubts Anderson's potential as a swing bowler but, frankly, he has not delivered for so long that to pick him for the most important Test match in 17 years is not an option.

Collingwood has played a lot of one-day games for England successfully and is used to the spotlight in the international arena. Collingwood is a better bet than Anderson as he is more likely to deal well with the pressure. This is the kind of game in which you need a very clear, sharp mind to keep your focus and the more experienced player is likelier to show the mental toughness required.

Collingwood is the better option but he is not ideal. What England really desire is a fifth specialist bowler to replace Jones, but the cupboard is quite bare at the moment. There is a paucity of quality seam bowling in county cricket and so England have no easy options.

What Collingwood would do is to strengthen the batting and that has been the weaker area for the England team. In the middle order Ian Bell has not been pulling up any trees and Kevin Pietersen has not made many in his last four starts.

To make up for the loss of Jones England need Steve Harmison to come to the party. With the pace and bounce at The Oval Harmison will be one of the three key performers along with Glenn McGrath, if he plays, and Andrew Flintoff. We know Flintoff will perform superbly well because he has been magnificent all summer, but Harmison needs to pick up his form. He has not done a great deal since Lord's and England need him at his best now.

Without Jones I am less confident of an England win than before the last two Tests when I thought we had all the momentum going into the game. I would call this one at 50:50 and I'm expecting another thriller.

7 Sep, 2005