England and Australia face tough decisions over the selection of their final XIs going into one of the biggest Test matches in Ashes history.

England's explosive master of reverse-swing, Simon Jones, has failed a fitness test on his sore right ankle and been ruled out of the game.

It is a blow because not only has Jones taken 18 wickets in the series, he also has a remarkable habit of breaking partnerships at the start of new spells. Australia, for their part, continue to fret over the fitness of their leading paceman Glenn McGrath, and have taken the precaution of calling up 29-year-old seamer Stuart Clarke from Middlesex as a potential like-for-like replacement.

So important are both bowlers to their sides' respective attacks that their absence can throw the selectors into a quandary and, in the case of England, contemplate changes to the make-up of the side. With Jones fit, there would be no question of departing from the line-up of five specialist bowlers which has given England the edge in firepower in the last three games. But, with Jones injured, England are unsure of whether to go for the fifth bowler they have called into the squad, Lancashire's James Anderson, or to go with Durham's Paul Collingwood, billed somewhat flatteringly as a batsman who can also bowl some useful overs.

It is a tricky choice because neither man is a particularly appetising replacement for Jones, who has taken two five-wicket hauls in the past two Test matches. There might be a temptation to play Collingwood because England only need a draw and, with bad weather likely to curtail play, runs on the board might be enough to ensure an Ashes triumph.

But such thinking would be peculiarly negative from a team that has built its success around aggressive cricket all summer. It is to be hoped, therefore, that England stay true to themselves and go for the more attacking, aggressive option - that of the fifth bowler - in order to go all out to win the final Test. To play Collingwood would be to severely weaken the bowling attack.

The importance of a fifth specialist bowler was obvious at Trent Bridge when Australia reached 386 in the second innings against a four-man attack shorn of the injured Jones, with Ian Bell filling in with his gentle seamers. Bell actually bowled at least as effectively in that innings as Collingwood might at The Oval, negating the argument that the Durham man could also bring something to the bowling department.

Anderson has marginally more experience than Collingwood, having played 12 Tests to his two, but his selection would also carry its own risks. At the start of his season for Lancashire the 23-year-old had lost most of the nip and late swing that had made him such an exciting prospect. This was partly blamed on his lack of bowling last summer when he was forever carrying the drinks for England, and he was advised to get a lot of bowling in for his county in the hope that his rhythm would return.

He has certainly followed orders, having bowled more than 500 overs in four-day cricket for 51 wickets at 31.80 this summer. The figures are unspectacular but, crucially, have gradually improved all season as he has gained in confidence. Of late he has received glowing reports from his captain, Mark Chilton, and is worth a punt in the absence of Jones because the risk of weakening the attack by going in with four bowlers is too great. Anderson last played for England at The Wanderers in the winter against South Africa when he had match figures of 2-149, but would be coming in with a lot more overs under his belt this time.

Ironically, as England consider abandoning the policy of playing five bowlers that has served them well, Australia are mulling over dropping a batsman and going in with five bowlers. That would allow them to play their second legspinner, Stuart MacGill, to exploit England's weakness against wrist spin, and take the pressure off McGrath if he does play with his patched-up limbs.

It would be a bold move because it would mean weakening Australia's misfiring batting, but it might focus a few minds and, in any case, the idea would be to chase fewer England runs. The five-man attack is probably Australia's best chance of winning even if McGrath does not recover from his tennis elbow in time. A four-man unit with the rookie Stuart Clark replacing McGrath, and Shaun Tait playing only his second Test match would not inspire confidence in Australian supporters.

England: (expected) MP Vaughan (capt), ME Trescothick, AJ Strauss, IR Bell, KP Pietersen, A Flintoff, GO Jones, AF Giles, MJ Hoggard, JM Anderson, SJ Harmison.

Australia: (from) RT Ponting (capt), JL Langer, ML Hayden, DR Martyn, MJ Clarke, SM Katich, AC Gilchrist, SK Warne, B Lee, GD McGrath, S Tait, S Clarke, S MacGill.

6 Sep, 2005