With Glenn McGrath injured and now Brett Lee falling sick it looks like all the good fortune and impetus has turned around and is now favouring England.

All it needs now is for someone to tread on Shane Warne's spinning finger and England will be hot favourites for the Ashes. Of course it's a terrible misfortune for McGrath and Lee but it is England's good fortune and they must capitalise on the opportunity now that the momentum is with them.

Australia at the start of the series had two bowlers who are all-time greats in Warne and McGrath. But the rest of the attack has looked pretty innocuous. Jason Gillespie has not moved a ball and looks a shadow of his former self and Michael Kasprowicz's batting was more memorable than his bowling at Edgbaston.

Therefore the whole thing has turned around. It just shows how sport can change in a fraction of a second and how a week in sport can be a long, long time.

The fact is that now we are favourites for this Test match. I'm not going to say for the Ashes because you should never get too far ahead of yourself. But Australia have lost their firepower. They have lost their best bowler and now look like losing their next-best seamer as well. But we still have all our firepower intact and I've always felt we had the capacity to bowl Australia out.

I've always worried about our batting and I still don't think it's that great. But it makes it easier without their great fast bowler. Marcus Trescothick was McGrath's rabbit and, without him at Edgbaston, he made over 100 in two digs. It's become a lot easier for our batsmen because Australia's seam attack now looks weak. But our middle order is still struggling; Michael Vaughan and Ian Bell haven't looked too sprightly.

Shane Warne will obviously be a factor at Old Trafford, but it's difficult to win a Test with just a spinner, no matter how good. Look at Sri Lanka. They have Mutthiah Muralitharan but they still struggle to beat the best sides. We also played Warne better at Edgbaston than at Lord's, especially in the first innings. We were positive in defence and attack. We'd done a lot of work and we were better prepared mentally.

The win will have lifted the players and they will also have the momentum going into the next Test. Australia are not used to losing many games. The momentum has also souped up the crowds and the country is getting behind England. The atmosphere at Old Trafford will be similar to Edgbaston.

I fancied Australia at the start of the summer but that was when they had a full-strength side. If we'd lost at Edgbaston it would have been awful, but a win's a win and now the side know they can beat Australia. Going to Edgbaston we were down but then we had two slices of luck – McGrath's injury and Ricky Ponting's bad decision to put us in to bat. The wheel of fortune is turning and if we play well I think we will win at Old Trafford.

10 Aug, 2005