England go into the pivotal Old Trafford Test match with a major advantage over Australia in firepower on a pitch expected to be hard and bouncy.

England's trio of tall 90mph bowlers, Steve Harmison, Andrew Flintoff and Simon Jones are sure to be bowling plenty of aggressive short stuff on a track described as "like a paving stone" by Lancashire chief executive Jim Cumbes. Even on a sluggish Edgbaston pitch Flintoff regularly bowled quicker than at any time in his career, and struck several batsmen painful blows. On his home ground and in his 50th Test, cheered on by a partisan crowd, he will be even more of a handful.

Australia have only one pace bowler capable of retaliating. With Glenn McGrath still unlikely to play because of his ankle injury, Brett Lee is the sole Australian capable of exploiting the pace in the pitch. Fortunately for Australia he looks likely to play after spending two days in hospital on intravenous antibiotics because of a knee infection.

"Brett arrived this morning from hospital in Birmingham and the treatment seems to have done the trick. He will be training this afternoon," said Ricky Ponting at his pre-match conference. "He's been well looked after and the relaxation is probably just what he needed."

Even if Lee plays he is likely to be fatigued by the antibiotics and will have to be treated carefully. Without Lee Australia would probably need to take a high-risk gamble on a Test debut for their raw 22-year-old pace bowler Shaun Tait. The Australian captain refused to rule out McGrath playing, but he was still limping on Tuesday morning and his participation seems unlikely.

On a true pitch, described as a "belter" by former Lancashire batsman Neil Fairbrother, bowlers who do not hit the deck could be cannon fodder. Ominously for Australia this is likely to include both the out-of-form Jason Gillespie as well as Michael Kasprowicz.

For England Matthew Hoggard looks most at risk, assuming his place with Chris Tremlett still waiting in the wings, although it is easier for England to hide bowlers because they possess the extra man in their attack. Michael Vaughan refused to name his XI before speaking at length to local boy Andrew Flintoff late on Wednesday afternoon.

"Nobody knows the conditions better than Freddie and I want to use all his experience," said Vaughan at his pre-match press conference. "We want to discuss things in detail at the team meeting later today and will only make a decision at the last minute. The important thing is to have all the bases covered."

The only England selection query can be between Hoggard and Tremlett, a pacier and bouncier proposition on this pitch. But England will probably stick with Hoggard for the sake of continuity and because they already possess three tall pacemen.

The alternative notion that the selectors might consider dropping Ashley Giles is an absurd one. Although Giles has a moderate record at Old Trafford, where he has taken nine wickets at 38 in three Tests, he offers variety, and the pitch is likely to take turn by the third day.

His opposite number, Shane Warne, has 16 wickets in the series and a fantastic record at Old Trafford, where he has 17 wickets in two Tests at 14 apiece. But the pitch is unlikely to be the kind of Old Trafford turner on which he bowled the legendary "Gatting ball" in 1993.

The most successful bowler on its rock-hard surface this year has been Harmison, who had match figures of 9-82 for Durham in May. The Pakistani legspinner Danish Kaneria managed just 0-208 in 70 overs for Essex, and even Mutthiah Muralitharan has taken 20 of his 36 championship wickets for Lancashire away from home.

All this is good news for England because Warne obviously represents the biggest threat. But he remains capable of turning the ball on anything and will be an enormous challenge later in the game as the pitch slows.

Vaughan sagely dismissed the notion of England having the greater "momentum" going into the game. "Momentum is a dangerous concept. Australia had the greater momentum going into Edgbaston, but we dominated the first three days.

"We need to wipe the slate clean and try to put them under pressure from the first ball. I will encourage my team to play with their instincts because I think it's the best way for such a young side, rather than putting themselves under pressure by thinking what a massive game it is."

Both teams have their worries on the batting front, partly because the bowling attacks have been outstanding, but on a good pitch at Old Trafford a big hundred could go a long way towards winning this Test.

To win England have to become the first side to defeat Australia in two consecutive Tests for 75 matches. It is a measure of how far they have come that it is a very real possibility.

England (probable): Michael Vaughan (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Andrew Strauss, Ian Bell, Kevin Pietersen, Andrew Flintoff, Geraint Jones, Ashley Giles, Matthew Hoggard, Steve Harmison, Simon Jones.

Australia (from): Ricky Ponting (capt), Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer, Damien Martyn, Michael Clarke, Simon Katich, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne, Brett Lee, Jason Gillespie, Michael Kasprowicz, Stuart MacGill.

10 Aug, 2005