England can definitely win this series, but to do so they will need strong minds and will have to give as good as they get both psychologically and physically.

They must not be bullied by Australia's brilliant method of mental domination. It stems from the imposition of their aura and their enormous self-belief. They approach every match believing they will win it.

This translates into a huge plus factor for them and comes over as a minus factor for the opposition. I don't feel that any England side in recent memory has truly believed at the outset of an Ashes series that they would win it.

This side, though, do believe in themselves enough to know that, if they play their best, they can win. They also understand how and, particularly when, Australia are at their bullying best and are likely to deal with that more convincingly than any of their recent predecessors.

The mental part of this contest is one key factor that will decide it. The next equally important factor is the discipline of the England bowling and the sharpness of the fielding and catching.

England certainly have enough talent with the ball but they can't afford those off days or off sessions. They have let lesser teams back into the game and against Australia they will pay an even higher price.

If England catch everything that matters, effect a few run outs and generally field with purpose and energy, they will make Australia feel a bit claustrophobic and return some of the intensity they suffer themselves.

There are two key contests on the field of play. First of all, the England bowlers must bowl well against Adam Gilchrist because he turns games more often than anybody else in the modern game, frequently from a position of weakness to one of strength.

Secondly, England's opening batsmen must survive against the new ball. Brett Lee looks certain to play and he and Glenn McGrath understand the importance of knocking over Marcus Trescothick and Andrew Strauss early.

There are basically three reasons why it's so important for Australia to make quick inroads in an innings. It undermines what has been an immensely successful partnership since it came into effect little more than a year ago. It also exposes Michael Vaughan at three, who Australia will target because they make no secret of their desire to hunt down the head of the opposing herd. Finally, quick wickets will expose a middle-order that just might be too hit or miss.

Lord's has always inspired Australia, and England have not beaten them at the home of cricket since 1934, but of late it has also inspired England. It seems to me that the side which gets the most jabs and punches in early has the best chance of making something of the series.

Therefore how England play on the first day, and in fact especially in the first session, is of vital importance. Australia always target the first session of every match because it sets the tone for the series. When a team has built itself into a frenzied state before the first day, with all the preparation and planning that goes with it, to be knocked back can be a difficult blow to recover from.

Mark Nicholas was speaking to David Smith.

20 Jul, 2005