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[ Graphical: Channel4 Homepage ]
Based on the outcome of the high emissions scenario from the Hadley climate models, here is a sample of the weather that we might experience in winter 2080. The modelers call the high emissions scenario the 'business as normal' scenario. In other words, this is what the weather will be like if we make no effort to curb our effect on global warming.
The onset of global warming has considerably shortened the British winter. In the Midlands and southern Britain, the first frosts typically occur a week or two before Christmas, with the number of cold and frosty mornings fewer. In parts of the Southwest, you'll have difficulty finding someone who can remember when they last scraped ice from the windscreen of their car. However, at least higher average winter temperatures have cut down on the number of days that the heating needs to be switched on for.
The old tradition of laying a bet on a white Christmas has become an almost pointless exercise. In southern England, snow during the Christmas season is a rare event – perhaps occurring once in 20 years. So is skiing in the Scottish Highlands; that industry packed up years ago as snowfall fell by 75% over 80 years. The heather has been replaced by arable grasslands, grazed by cattle for most of the year.
One aspect of the weather during winter which has become problematic is rainfall. Compared to 80 years before, winter rainfall is more frequent (up by around 30%) and severe downpours are more common. As a result, flash flooding is also more common and many low-lying areas along Britain's major rivers flood regularly. The London basin and the Thames and Severn estuaries have become particularly prone to flooding. The combination of higher sea levels, storm surges and heavy run-off during prolonged downpours has caused havoc over the last few decades. You've given up on your holiday cottage on the Somerset Levels since flooding became too frequent. It's caused house insurance prices for properties in low-lying areas adjacent to rivers to sky rocket.
1. Introduction | Rising Temperatures | Predicting Global Warming | Complicating Factors | Predicting 2080 | Spring 2080 | Summer 2080 | Autumn 2080 | Winter 2080 |10. Quick Guides | 11. Find out more | 12. Credits
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