Mortality
Whether we like it or not, the single most certain thing in life
is the knowledge that it will eventually come to an end. How long
we live depends on a huge number of factors including:
- Our lifestyle choices
- Our genes
- The environment we live in and, of course,
- Fate
Using the science of epidemiology, a branch of statistics that
looks at the spread of disease within populations, it is possible
to get a good idea of when we are going to die. The average life
expectancy for men in the UK is 74 years and for women it's 80 years.
How would you cope if you knew the date of your own death?
The Test
Predicting life expectancy for anyone is not an exact science!
The aim of this test was to profile our contestants potential longevity
based on their lifestyle and environmental factors. Each contestant
completed a medical and had to carefully fill in a confidential
personal questionnaire which was then analysed by our expert.
Each was informed that the information they were about to receive
contained only an estimated time of death and they were given the
option to read it or not. They were then given a DeathClock Envelope
with detailed information on their potential longevity.
Expected life expectancy is derived from the expectation of life
for a man or woman at the current age. Women live longer than men,
and their life expectancy is 81 years - five years more than that
of men. In our test, we gave each contestant their date of death
or 'deathclock'. This was as accurate as it could be given we didn't
know their genetic factors and 'chance' was ruled out.
Within these limits of accuracy, the majority of factors that affect
age are environmental and our deathclock estimation is 95% correct,
but this was only a prediction based on average population figures
and so has a low probability of being correct.
The environmental factors we looked at were:
| height |
diastolic blood pressure |
smoking history |
| weight |
systolic blood pressure |
aspirin |
| vitamins |
blood glucose |
the pill |
| gender |
age of parents and grandparents |
wealth |
| diet |
alcohol consumption |
marital status |
| age |
body mass index |
social class |
| exercise |
|
|
The Experts
Professor Shah Ebrahim, DM, MSc, FRCP, WFFPHM - Professor of Epidemiology
and Ageing at the University of Bristol.
What Effects Your Potential Lifespan?
The following are the most important factors that can affect your
potential longevity:
Smoking: a major cause of mortality and has probably the
greatest effect in shortening life expectancy. A study among British
doctors showed that those continuing to smoke after the age of 35
lost eight years of their life.
Social class: one of the most important factors of longevity.
Professional and managerial workers have an advantage of three or
four years. Rises in life expectancy over the last four decades
has only affected non-manual workers.
Marital Status: Among middle aged men, being married modestly
reduces the chances of mortality but has little effect on women.
Family history of premature heart disease or stroke (before
the age of 60): is important and reduces survival prospects
of both men and women. Other causes of early death are less important
and the age at of parents has little bearing on the survival prospects
of the children.
Exercise: regular vigorous or moderate exercise has a strong
effect on mortality in both men and women.
Accidents: only contribute a small amount to overall mortality
but are important as a cause of death among younger men.
Raised blood pressure: is an important cause of certain
diseases and affects both men and women, shortening life expectancy.
Raised BMI (body mass index): is an important cause of certain
diseases and affects both men and women, shortening life expectancy
but only modestly.
Diet: is an important determinant of both cancers and certain
diseases and probably has a modest effect on life expectancy.
Diagnosed chronic diseases has a profoundly important impact
on life expectancy.
Surprising negatives: alcohol consumption, unless massive
or associated with drink driving, is unlikely to have any major
impact on life expectancy. There is little evidence of implicate
stress in life expectancy.
Scoring
Our contestants were scored by the age they were predicted to live
to - the oldest age received most points, the youngest to die received
the least points. If they chose not to open their envelope they
were given a score based on the average age of death for the British
Population i.e.
74 yrs for men and 80 for women.
Our Superhuman was the contestant with the longest predicted potential
lifespan.
Click here to see the
final results >
|
