Winning the Peace

Dr Nicholas Beecroft

April 2003

The challenges presented to the US and UK coalition by post-conflict Iraq and the realities of world security following 11 September show that the beliefs and feelings of other people around the world matter. A powerful military and intelligence infrastructure is necessary but no longer sufficient to ensure the well being of a country. The opinions of individuals and groups in other countries can have a direct impact upon the physical, psychological and economic health of even the most powerful country. For a stable Iraq and a safer domestic situation, there is an immediate need for the coalition to win over the Iraqi people and those of the Middle East. What strategy should the coalition use and what psychological hurdles will they need to address?

The world has been watching images of Iraqis celebrating the end of tyranny, throwing open the doors of Saddam's torture chambers and tasting freedom for the first time. Many in the US and the UK claimed this to be evidence that the war was, after all, justified. Even if no weapons of mass destruction are found and even if the US awards itself all the reconstruction contracts, surely the conflict has been worthwhile, bringing freedom, democracy and justice to the Iraqi people? Surely Iraqis and their Arab brothers watching the same images must now be grateful for the sacrifice made by coalition soldiers?

But the majority of Arabs don't take this view. Far from seeing the coalition as benign liberators of an oppressed people, they see them as brutal forces seeking to dominate the region, stamping out the one government brave enough to stand up to them. They focus on the humiliation of the Arab people, yet again defeated and controlled by Western powers. Most Arabs interviewed about the pictures of Iraqi jubilation dismissed them as showing only small numbers of Iraqis, perhaps those of particular ethnic groups with specific grievances. Or maybe, say the Arabs, the people are just displaying relief because the war is over.

The Arabs are acutely aware of civilian casualties. When US soldiers shot at cars containing civilians, Arabs didn't identify with the soldiers who were making split second decisions to save their lives from suspected suicide bombers. They identified with the innocent civilian victims. Politicians in the US and UK have become experts in domestic media management and naturally try to use these skills to influence foreign public opinion in the same way. But the problem for the coalition is that when different groups of people see the same images they interpret them in different ways. People's perceptions are dictated by their pre-existing beliefs and expectations.

Our global village

So how can the US and UK governments change people's beliefs and expectations in order to 'win hearts and minds'? Though the scale of the challenge is large, the clues lie in the everyday skills we use in our personal relationships with family, friends, colleagues and strangers.

With the communications revolution of recent decades, the whole world can see what's going on instantaneously and can participate to some degree. The world has become a 'global village'. Managing relationships within this global village is like managing relationships within a real village. But if one tried to conduct a relationship with friends and family by acting solely in one's self-interest, whilst justifying it in other terms, it would soon create problems within the relationships. Similarly, this is true of international relations.

Opinions are most convincing when they come from a source that acknowledges both sides of an argument. It would be much more persuasive for the coalition to acknowledge that the war on Iraq is motivated partly by oil and domestic security interests as well as by the wish to liberate the Iraqi people and to remove weapons of mass destruction. People are sufficiently sophisticated to realise that the US and UK would not act solely altruistically and that all actions have mixed motives. To deny something so obvious discredits the source of the message.

If people could be convinced that in addition to self-interested motives, the coalition genuinely supported freedom, democracy, self-determination, prosperity and justice for other peoples of the world, they would receive more support and less antipathy. They would stand more chance of attracting countries, individuals and groups worldwide to join an 'axis of freedom' – a long-term international alliance that would share universal values rather than those based on race, religion or economic trading blocs. Winning the peace will require more than just the democratisation of Iraq – the US and UK coalition will need to support those individuals and groups who are working to promote universal values around the world. This would build trust and support and show real commitment.

As the world's most powerful and prominent country, the US would be central to such an alliance. But it would also have the hardest task – to behave in a consistent and fair way in the common interest, not just in its own. As with other social animals, people give support to leaders in order to receive protection and other benefits in return. The US needs to cultivate sensitivity and respect in its dealings with others if it's to attract maximum support.

Actions not words

Actions speak louder than words. Reputations are based more on what people do than on what they say, and people have long memories. While they can be forgiving and respond positively to new overtures, they tend to remember being attacked, cheated or let down for a very long time. The challenge for the coalition governments is to take a long-term view of their relationships with the peoples of other countries. To build good relationships based upon trust, commitment and respect, the coalition need to do more than behave well once or to put a good media spin on a particular action. They need to act consistently according to the values they say they believe in.

For example, in 1992 the Algerian military prevented the second round of national elections, which the Islamic opposition was set to win. The failure of the US and the European Union (EU) to intervene and allow the popular vote to be carried through demonstrated a lack of genuine commitment to democracy and sowed the seeds of civil war and terrorism for a generation.

And until the Arab people feel that the injustice done to the Palestinians has been put right and until the Israeli people feel secure, the conflict between them will continue to generate hatred and anger. This will be exploited both by terrorists and by Arab dictators who distract their people's frustrations onto this problem. In its own interest, the coalition needs to make a genuine effort to facilitate the peace process.

Ultimately, the US and UK need to go well beyond rebuilding Iraq and trying to manage the Arab media. They need to build long-term relationships with other peoples based on trust, respect and mutual understanding. They need to learn to communicate effectively, by really listening. Coalition behaviour needs to be sincere and consistent with the values that the US and UK governments say they stand for. They need to do what they can to remove causes of hatred and resentment and not obstruct others from finding solutions to these issues too. They need to move beyond carrot and stick approaches to manipulating foreign governments and build long-term alliances with other countries, groups and individuals based on common values, democracy, self-determination, freedom and justice.

In short, to win the peace, the coalition needs to remember that international relations is about managing relationships between people and that requires all the sincerity, sensitivity and skills that we use in our personal relationships.

Dr Nicholas Beecroft is a London-based psychiatrist and director of Psyplomacy

Find out more

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Websites

News and media

After Saddam
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/
photo_gallery/2964465.stm
Photo galleries of the war in Iraq, including the fall of Tikrit, Iraq's Shia rebirth, Saddam's art and looting.

Al Jazeera
http://english.aljazeera.net
English version of the Qatar-based Arab satellite television station which has provided a vital Arabic perspective on the latest conflict in Iraq. Arabic speakers can visit the mother site at www.aljazeera.net

Arab News
www.arabicnews.com
Saudi Arabia's first English daily with lots of articles on the Iraq War.

Islam Online
www.islamonline.net/English/Views/
2003/04/article08.shtml
Informative article discussing how the war on Iraq has changed people's perception of the media, both in the Arabic world and in the West.

The war with Iraq

Operation Iraqi Freedom
www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq
The US White House website with news and information from the heart of the US Government on the current situation in Iraq.

United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
www.un.org/depts/unmovic
The United Nations body charged with disarming Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction.

Weapons of Mass Destruction: UK Governments assessment in 2002
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Politics/
documents/2002/09/24/dossier.pdf
Download the document that set out the UK Government's case on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Rebuilding Iraq

Psyplomacy
www.psyplomacy.com/
Psyplomacy comprises a team of psychiatrists and psychologists. They provide psychological analyses of relations between countries, groups and individuals and recommend strategies to improve the relationships.

A Vision for Iraq and the Iraqi People
www.number-10.gov.uk/output/page3280.asp
A UK Government document outlining its vision for Iraq in the event of military action, published in March 2003.

Global Security
www.globalsecurity.org
An organization focused on new approaches to the emerging world security challenges. Their mission is to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons and the risk of their use and to reduce the worldwide incidence of deadly conflict.

The International Committee of the Red Cross
www.icrc.org
The international body whose responsibilities include ensuring adherence to the Geneva Conventions. Find information about the Geneva Conventions and a special section on the humanitarian response in Iraq.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies
www.iiss.org/iraq.php
Extensive information on international strategic issues including the current situation in Iraq, focusing on the various political, economic and social problems that cause instability, as well as the factors that can lead to international cooperation.

Iraq Foundation
www.iraqfoundation.org
Reports and information from the US-based, non-profit, non-governmental organisation working for democracy and human rights in Iraq.

Iraqi National Congress
www.inc.org.uk
Information, views and news from the INC, a key opposition grouping to Saddam Hussein.

United Nations
www.un.org
The international body charged with managing international security and relations between the world's nations. The website contains extensive news and statements from the Secretary General Kofi Annan on post-war Iraq.

US State Department – The Future of Iraq
http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/
iraq/future.htm
Part of the US State Department's International Information Program. Contains a range of news and information focusing on the future of Iraq.

Books

	Intergroup Relations (Mapping Social Psychology) by Marilynn Brewer and Norman Miller (Open University Press, 1996) Examines social psychology's unique contribution to our understanding of inter-group relations, examining the whole range of interactions from the level of individual psychological processes to the behaviour of large social groups. Get this book
	After the Terror by Ted Honderich (Edinburgh University Press, 2002) This philosophical and moral reflection describes two worlds – ours of good lives and another of bad lives – and questions our complicity in allowing the bad lives to happen. Ted Honderich asks why the events of 11 September were wrong and what terrorism tells us about ourselves and our obligations. Get this book
	Personal Identity, National Identity and International Relations (Cambridge Studies in International Relations) by William Bloom (Cambridge University Press, 1993) The first psychological study of nation-building, nationalism, mass mobilisation and foreign policy processes. In a bold exposition of identification theory, William Bloom relates mass psychological processes to international relations. Get this book
	Groups: Theory and experience by Rodney Napier and Matti K Gershenfeld (Houghton Mifflin (Academic), 1998) A blend of theory, current research and applications, this text discusses key concepts of groups as units (membership, norms, goals), then integrates to show the development of groups. The book illustrates how these concepts can be utilized in the 'real world'. Get this book
	Leading Minds: An anatomy of leadership by Howard Gardner and Emma Laskin (Basic Books, 1996) Drawing on his work on intelligence and creativity, Harvard psychologist Howard Gardner offers revelations about the mind of the leader and his or her followers. He identifies six constant features of leadership as well as paradoxes that must be resolved for leadership to be effective using portraits of leaders from J Robert Oppenheimer to Alfred P Sloan, from Pope John XXIII to Mahatma Gandhi. Get this book
	Justice and the Politics of Difference by Iris Marion Young (Princeton University Press, 1990) Iris Young makes us think about justice not as a set of debts we owe other individuals but as a set of relations between social groups. She says in a just society, no group is oppressed. Get this book

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