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Q4: What immediate first step should industrialized countries take to address the compounding problem of global warming?
Richard Benton, Clearwater Florida, USA

Dr New: The solution to global warming from greenhouse gases is to reduce emissions. Any reduction is better than none because it will both reduce the rate at which global warming proceeds and reduce the risk of large (and potentially irreversible) changes in the climate system such as melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

For industrialised countries this raises two challenges:

  • reducing their own emissions and
  • enabling industrialising countries to develop their economies without getting locked into outdated power generation that has high greenhouse gas emissions.


  • In both instances the challenge is political.

    On the home front, the biggest opportunities lie in increasing efficiency in energy use. Studies have shown that it is quite feasible to reduce our energy consumption by at least 25% through a combination of changing habits and low energy technology. Yet the UK government has consistently failed to embark on any major initiatives because they may be politically and economically unpopular.

    Internationally, we have to find ways to get industrialising countries to embrace low-emission energy production. This is primarily an economic issue, as new technology is expensive. A country like China does not want to hamper economic development by using expensive energy, when cheaper old technology is available.

    My personal opinion is that if we want countries like China to move to a low carbon economy, industrialised countries that benefited from dirty energy have to underwrite the additional costs of clean industrialisation in developing countries.

    Q5: If parts of the United Kingdom were to become submerged due to global warming, what would the UK look like?
    JR, Derbyshire

    Dr New: Future sea level rise is quite difficult to estimate accurately, as it depends on several factors:

  • heat expansion of the ocean, melting of mountain glaciers
  • melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and
  • the way these large scale changes interact with local coastal geometry.


  • Estimates of changes in global sea level since 1900 range from about 1cm to 20cm; by 2020 sea levels should rise a further 5-20cm and by the end of the century they might have risen by up to one metre compared to today, with a best estimate of about half a metre.

    One thing is for sure, the rate of increase will accelerate over the next 100 years. This is because ice sheets, glaciers and oceans are still adjusting to the past warming of the atmosphere, and will also respond to the accelerating future warming.

    A big uncertainty is the stability of the Greenland (and perhaps the Antarctic) ice sheet. Some scientists estimate that sometime in the next 40 years temperatures over Greenland will have risen enough to cause irreversible melting; even if temperatures were to decrease again further in the future, the Greenland ice sheet would continue to gradually melt, causing a 7m rise in sea level over 1000-2000 years.

    To see what the UK would look like for several extreme changes in sea level, visit the
    Benfield Hazard Research Centre.

    For a city like London, the timing of a "Thames overflow" is uncertain, as it depends not only on the rate of sea level rise but also the occurrence of a large tidal storm surge up the estuary, perhaps coupled with a large flood from the Thames catchment. Any rise in sea level will increase the risk of an overflow. There are plans to upgrade the Thames Barrier and other London flood defence systems so that London is protected at least until 2100. A rise of 7m over the longer term would require defences such as those currently in place in the Netherlands, perhaps coupled with abandonment of less valuable areas.

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