A compilation of statistics and quotations, including links to sources where applicable, presenting a snap-shot of the opposing views concerning the Chernobyl disaster and its ramifications.
Introduction
The Chernobyl Forum Report (opens in a new window), published in 2005, with an updated appendix(opens in a new window) in 2008, combines detailed research on the effects of the Chernobyl accident that multiple United Nations (UN) agencies had conducted for 20 years.
The Chernobyl Forum is made up of nine UN organisations: the World Health Organisation (WHO), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and World Bank.
The conclusions of Chernobyl Forum Report are challenged by Greenpeace who commissioned a separate report into the disaster: The Chernobyl Catastrophe: Consequences on Human Health(opens in a new window), 2006.
Quotes and Statistics
According to the Chernobyl Forum Report (opens in a new window):
Deaths
30 people died as a direct result of the accident
19 died after 1986 probably from radiation
15 deaths from thyroid cancer
Total = 64 deaths attributable to the accident
Cancer
6,000 cases of thyroid cancer caused by Chernobyl were diagnosed 1991-2005. 99% of the thyroid cancer cases were treated successfully.
No increase in cancer other than thyroid: 'No convincing evidence that the incidence of leukaemia or cancer (other than thyroid) has increased.' The report also states: 'The absence of a demonstrated increase in cancer risk – apart from thyroid cancer – is not proof that no increase has in fact occurred.'
– UN Report p19
Birth defects
'No evidence of decreased fertility in the general population as a result of radiation has been found, nor has any evidence of increases of congenital malformations that can be attributed to radiation exposure.'
–UN Report p20
People who will die of cancer in the future
600,000 people were in the most contaminated area. Of this 600,000 up to 4,000 'additional' cases of cancer are expected. The 4,000 is 'additional' because roughly 100,000 of the 600,000 will die of cancer anyway. – UN report p16
'Among the 5 million people residing in other 'contaminated' areas the radiation doses are much lower and any projected increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a difference of less than one per cent mortality.' – UN report p16
The Greenpeace Report(opens in a new window)
Key numbers:
93,000 have died or will die from cancer due to radiation by 2056
270,000 have or will have serious illnesses caused by radiation by 2056
Why do the numbers differ so wildly?
The numbers are based on mathematical models. The Greenpeace Report(opens in a new window) looks at the whole of Europe and claims tens of millions of people will be affected by the fallout. The UN argues that only 600,000 people received levels of radiation that are much above normal, and five millions others may also be effected. They reject the idea people all over Europe will have cancers caused by Chernobyl.
Criticism of the Greenpeace report
In an interview with Spiegel Online (April 2006) Mikhail Balonov, Scientific Secretary of the Chernobyl Forum, said:
'Peer-reviewed science only really started developing in Russia and the Soviet states after the Soviet Union collapsed. If you want to get some serious conclusions from the data, it has to be in peer reviewed papers. Unfortunately none of the studies cited in the new [Greenpeace] report have been peer-reviewed..'
– Spiegel Online; The Chernobyl Body Count Controversy(opens in a new window)
(Please note, these websites are external and open in new browser windows.)
Features:
Geoengineering I Zambia I Chernobyl I Golden Rice I Climate change I The energy debate I DTT
