Critics have accused Chávez of trying to emulate Cuba's communist system and of increasing state intervention in business - and rumours of foreign backed conspiracies to oust him have abounded. He was forced out of office by the military in April 2002, only to be reinstated within 48 hours after a post-coup opposition government collapsed in the face of a rebellion by loyalist troops and massive protests.
Embarrassingly, the United States, 11% of whose oil imports come from Venezuela and Chile were quick to acknowledge the de facto pro-US government, but ended up condemning the coup after it had been defeated. Then, in December 2002, PDVSA officially went on strike, creating a complete halt in oil production in Venezuela, which was intended to pressure Chávez into resigning and calling early elections. The strike lasted approximately two months, costing the economy $10bn in lost oil production.
In the aftermath, the government fired 19,000 PDVSA employees and replaced them with workers loyal to Chávez. When the strike ended unemployment was up by 5 percent, rising to 20 percent by March 2003. Now, analysts are warning that oil has been Chávez's political oxygen and without it his populist policies will damage the economy.
The fall in poverty owes everything to the surge in the oil price since 1999. When Chávez took office in 1998 the price was $11 a barrel. It peaked in July 2008 at $147. Since then it has halved. Despite Chávez's talk of diversifying the economy, Venezuela is more dependent on oil now than it was when he took power, and it accounts for more than half of government revenue.
Analysts warn the end of the oil boom may spell doom for Chávez and his '21st century socialism' - a torrent of central government spending. This is up from 22% of GDP in 2001 to 32% now, meaning millions more Venezuelans depend on the state for jobs and handouts than did so a decade ago. And PDVSA, run now as a political project, produces around a quarter less oil than it did a decade ago, while its debt has almost doubled.
The most reliable opinion polls suggest that Chávez will win the referendum on February 15th, albeit by a small margin. Despite the complaints, just over 50% of respondents in polls approve of him personally.
Chávez still commands high approval ratings despite prolonged food and electricity shortages, rampant inflation and spiralling crime. But this could be regarded as less a ringing endorsement of him, and more an eloquent indictment of the opposition…
