What now for Syria?

With the outside world in paralysis about what to do about Syria, the crisis has reached another crossroads in the apparently inexorable drift towards civil war.

This week has seen a surge in violence, with at least 57 people reported killed in the past two days alone. And despite President Bashar al-Assad‘s weekend announcement of an amnesty for the “criminals of the Syrian uprising”, opposition activists believe 35,000 Syrians remain in detention facilities, where torture is endemic.

The Arab League’s 17 observer teams are today pulling out, their month-long mandate over. The Sudanese head of the controversial mission, General Mohammed al-Dabi (formerly chief of military intelligence in Darfur), heads to Cairo to report back on what is widely perceived – inside and outside Syria – to have been a deeply flawed exercise.

We are hoping and trying not to drift into civil war, but only international action will prevent it. Omar Shakir (pseudonym), activist in Homs

The 155 observers were deployed across Syria and did visit key flashpoints: towns and cities whose names are now writ large in the history of what has become the bloodiest of the Arab world’s revolts. But the monitors completely failed to staunch the bloodshed. The United Nations says the shooting of protestors has continued unabated.

The global campaign group Avaaz claims to have recorded 746 civilian deaths since the observers first arrived on 26 December. Half of them were killed in the first ten days of the mission, the remit of which was to verify an agreed peace plan. The UN said more than a month ago that 5,000 had been killed since March last year.

President Bashar al-Assad’s answer to the Arab peace initiative was his pledge, last week, to continue to crush his opponents with “an iron fist.” This, in turn, prompted President Obama to issue his own pledge to redouble efforts to force regime change in Syria.

International paralysis

The European Union will, on Monday, agree an 11th round of sanctions and enforce of an arms embargo. But Russia continues to defend Damascus: “We will not support any sanctions,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday.

Russia and China, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, have blocked – through their veto-wielding powers – tough Security Council resolutions, to the frustration of other members, including Britain. Foreign Secretary William Hague says a UN resolution on Syria is “long overdue.”

Break this deadlock now pleads a resident of Homs: read her blog here 

The Syrian opposition has lost faith in the Arab League. On Wednesday, 140 human rights groups across the Arab world appealed for UN intervention to halt the violence. The rebel Free Syrian Army has also urged the UN to “act quickly against the regime.” The reality is that the UN Security Council has been rendered powerless.

China, meanwhile, has defended the Arab League’s observer mission, asserting that things had actually improved since the observers got there.

“The security situation of major areas has improved, which shows the mission is effective,” said foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin.

Such comments are met with disbelief by those at the sharp end of al-Assad’s bayonets and bullets. On Thursday, Channel 4 News contacted an activist in Homs, the city dubbed by many the “Capital of the Revolution” whose verdict on the Arab League was damning.

“The regime only allowed them in so that it could buy more time,” he said.

“While the observers were running around the country, achieving nothing, a shipload of ammunition arrived from Russia. It was a period which the regime used to restock and catch its breath.”

Using the pseudonym Omar Shakir, he told us of the case of a Homsi salesman who had been randomly shot at a checkpoint, then arrested.

They had tortured him to death. Omar Shakir (pseudonym), activist in Homs

“We spoke to more than one Arab League observer and we were assured they had informed the mayor five times and that they had been promised he was being treated,” he said.

“Yesterday, we received his body,” Omar Shakir said. “His neck was broken. His arms had gunshot wounds. His face was burned. They had tortured him to death.”

He added that Homs opposition activists had presented Arab League observers with the names of 500 detainees, not one of whom was later released.

Imad Ghalioun, the member of parliament from Homs who announced his defection on Sunday, told us earlier this week: “The monitors came to Syria to implement the Arab League initiative, which says the killings should be stopped. But the opposite has happened. The monitors became witnesses to the killings,” he said.

Ten observers left the mission “for personal reasons.” One of them, a former Algerian army officer, actually resigned in disgust, accusing the regime of committing crimes against humanity. He says he witnessed a child being shot dead by a sniper and that he had seen evidence of summary execution and of torture.

This weekend, the foreign ministers of Qatar, Egypt, Oman, Algeria and Sudan, along with the Arab League’s Secretary General Nabil Al Arabi, meet to consider what to do next. The truth is that, like the UN, the League is split over how to rein in Assad. Their options range from extending the observer mission’s mandate and doubling the number of its members to discussing the suggestion from Qatar’s hawkish Emir that the Arab world deploy troops to end the bloodshed.

Omar Shakir, the opposition activist in Homs, told Channel 4 News: “We are hoping and trying not to drift into civil war, but only international action will prevent it. If the regime continues its murderous violence, we will have to defend ourselves.”

Both sides are going for broke.