US midterms: Democrats get desperate

The emails from Democratic organisers are getting increasingly desperate.

Yesterday I saw one asking Democrats to “cancel their Sunday plans”, to drop everything and get out campaigning for Gerry Connolly, the incumbent member of the House of Representatives for Virginia’s 11th district – a man in imminent danger of losing his seat in the midterm elections.

Two years ago he beat Republican Keith Fimian because so many Democratic voters came out to vote for President Obama. Now he is up against Fimian again and the numbers are not looking so good. Voters say the hope has evaporated, the change has not been delivered and last year they put a Republican into the governor’s mansion.

Channel 4 News special report on the midterm elections: Tea Party vs Obama

This is the, uh, FUTURE OF AMERICA

Today the emails are saying “Have plans? Cancel them. Can’t cancel? Postpone. If you got sick, you’d find some way to reschedule your other stuff, right? And this is way more important than illness. This is the, uh, FUTURE OF AMERICA we’re talking about—and it could come down to 184 people in Falls Church.”

It is true that the fate of many Democrats in Tuesday’s elections depends on how many volunteers they can get out onto the streets. They call it “the ground game” – the battle to get your supporters to bother to actually turn up and vote.

It’s always important – this year it is vital. Polls show that if you ask all registered voters which party they prefer more of them say the Democrats. But ask people who are likely to go and vote – then you see a majority for the Republicans. It’s the “enthusiasm gap” and it is threatening to kill Democrats. But its hard to get people fired up about a party they think has let them down over the last two years.

Door knocking

Joyce Jordan and her daughter J’nell let me tag along as they went out knocking doors on door for Connolly. No one was rude to them, and a few people we ran into were positively enthusiastic about Gerry Connolly. But they told me it was nothing like it was two years ago when they were canvassing for Obama. On the doorstep they can feel the how the support has drained away from the President and from his candidates.

In nearby Charlottesville, Obama himself was out campaigning for Tom Perriello, another Democratic congressman in danger of losing his seat. The President hugged him tight and asked Virginians to re-elect him. But its Perriello’s closeness to the President that is hurting him with some voters. He supported healthcare reform and he voted for the controversial “cap and trade” environmental legislation and standing that close to the President will cost him with the voters.

Obama magic wanes

Polls showed that voters in Virginia’s 65th district said they were less likely to Democrat after the President’s visit than before. Obama used to be a campaigning magician – winning over voters everywhere he went. But not this year.

Today, the last day before the election, he is holed up in the White House, running the country behind closed doors. He has no public events scheduled. He could have chosen to spend the day campaigning in Nevada, where the most important Democrat in the senate, majority leader Harry Reid, is in danger of losing his seat. But the Democratic Party chose instead to send someone whom the voters still like and who can still drum up votes – Michelle Obama.

Watch: two Republicans debate how the insurgent Tea Party may change the Republican Party itself. Former speechwriter for George Bush, David Frumm, and senior Republican strategist Cherie Jacobus, go head to head.