How strong is the state of Obama’s union?

It’s the moment when political rhetoric goes prime time. President Obama has promised a “blueprint for America” when he rises to his feet for tonight’s State of the Union address. And this being an election year, it’s not just a list of political priorities, with a few well-honed flourishes to raise the heartbeat, but the start of his re-election bid.

In a video posted on his campaign website, Obama declared: “This is a make or break moment for the middle class and folks trying to work their way into the middle class”. His team are touting a populist theme, with a pitch towards fairness, and opportunity for all.

This is a make or break moment for the middle class. Barack Obama

According to Democratic sources, expect plenty on taxation – a fresh pledge to let those Bush era tax cuts expire, plus a new commitment to the “Buffett rule” which would set a minimum rate for the wealthiest Americans. Mitt Romney, take note. There’ll be other promises too – more help for struggling homeowners, clean energy incentives, a boost for firms that create American jobs.

Prebuttal time

All of this has already been trashed, or “pre-butted” by the president’s Republican rivals. This morning Romney predicted the speech would be full of “tall tales about America”, and “partisan plans for (Obama’s) re-election campaign”. And House Speaker John Boehner described it as a “re-run of what we’ve heard over the last three years”.

A re-run of what we’ve heard over the last three years. John Boehner, House Speaker

So much for bipartisan appeal, then. In fact one Republican congressman, Doug Lamborn of Colorado, has already said he won’t be turning up at all, so much does he disagree with whatever the president is about to say. A good time to take note of Ryan Lizza’s observation in the New Yorker, that “the House and Senate are more polarised today than at any time since the eighteen nineties”.

Obama’s poll bounce

And while the Republican presidential contenders are so busy ripping shreds out of each other in the primary race, it’s Obama who’s been reaping the political rewards. According to a new ABC News-Washington Post poll – “unfavorable views of Mitt Romney have soared, doubts about Newt Gingrich remain widespread and Barack Obama has advanced to his highest personal popularity in more than a year.” And worryingly for the Republicans, that’s almost all down to a huge shift among independents, who’ve been deserting the Romney and Gingrich camps in their droves.

Tweeting the Union

Last year’s State of the Union attracted some 43 million viewers on network television, with a similar audience predicted tonight. The White House is also streaming the address live on its own website, followed by a live chat with senior administration officials, who’ll take questions from the public over Twitter and Facebook. Critics can turn to the US Chamber of Commerce, for a ready-made social media kit designed to send out thousands of tweets urging the White House to “#GetSerious about #jobs”.

For Obama, though, tonight’s speech is about pitching for the next four years: and tomorrow he’ll be back on the road in a lightning tour of key states. Three days, one message: a return to real American values, where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone plays by fair rules. Whether those Americans will end up buying it, is his task to prove.

Felicity Spector writes about US politics for Channel 4 News