UK and Scottish governments at odds over independence costs

Analysis published by Mr Alexander on Wednesday suggests that every Scottish man, woman and child benefits from being part of the UK. The data was compiled by the Treasury over 18 months and based on independent forecasts and modelling.

Speaking at the launch event in Edinburgh, Mr Alexander said: “Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland’s future will be safer, with stronger finances and a more progressive society. Because as a United Kingdom we can pool resources and share risks.

“It means a UK dividend of £1,400 a year for every man, woman and child in Scotland. That dividend is our share of a more prosperous future. It is the money that will pay for better public services and a fairer society.”

Competing figures

Competing estimates of the costs and savings of Scottish independence were set out on Wednesday as the Scottish and UK governments outlined their visions for the nation’s constitutional future.

The Scottish government unveiled a rival publication which claimed an independent Scotland could be £5bn a year better off in 15 years’ time without having to raise taxes.

Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland’s future will be safer, with stronger finances. Danny Alexander

Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond said the outlook for Scotland’s public finances paper “gives a very clear picture of what independence could deliver in economic terms for the people of Scotland”.

An increase of 0.3 percentage points in the long-run productivity growth rate could raise an additional £2.4bn a year in revenues by 2029/30, according to the Scottish government report.

Meanwhile, upping the employment rate in Scotland by 3.3 percentage points – taking it to the level of the five best-performing countries in the developed world – could provide additional revenues of £1.3 billion a year, it claims.

A rise in the population, which is less than the UK as a whole is expected to see, could net a further £1.5bn a year by 2029/30, it argues. The total “bonus” is worth about £1,000 for every person in Scotland, Mr Salmond said.

We don’t think that scaremongering stands up to a moment’s examination. Alex Salmond

Mr Salmond added: “Our campaign is being based on putting forward the potential of the Scottish economy, understanding the strengths this country has.”

In contrast he claimed the anti-independence campaign is based on fear. “We don’t think that scaremongering stands up to a moment’s examination,” Mr Salmond said.

‘Higher interest payments’

But Mr Alexander argued leaving the UK would mean lower tax revenues north of the border and increased public spending.

He said a separate Scotland could face higher interest payments on government debts, at the same time as it had to deal with declining oil revenues and an ageing population.

“Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland’s future will be safer, with stronger finances and a more progressive society,” he said.

“Because as a United Kingdom we can pool resources and share risks, it means a UK dividend of £1,400 a year for every man, woman and child in Scotland.

“That dividend is our share of a more prosperous future. It is the money that will pay for better public services and a fairer society.”