11 Jan 2012

Next stop – South Carolina

What matters isn’t the victory. It’s whether Mitt Romney’s rivals still have any hopes of knocking him off course, or whether he’s unstoppable, writes Felicity Spector.

Police on horses outside New Hampshire polls

New Hampshire was never about who would win. The primary was always Romney’s for the taking – and despite the flurry of attention seeking headlines, it’s been slim pickings for campaign hacks. Walter Schapiro, chronicling his 9th New Hampshire primary for The New Republic, complains of a contest totally devoid of energy. “It feels like the primary is being conducted underwater, with every movement slow and exaggerated.” And, he goes on to blame the less than flamboyant nature of the frontrunner: “Romney inspires all the enthusiasm of ‘Vegetables Are Our Friends’ week in an elementary school cafeteria.” Ouch.

It’s all heading south

But onwards and upwards: with thousands of voters yet to woo, hundreds of news bulletins yet to fill, the action is all heading south to the Palmetto state, South Carolina, that old firewall for many a Republican campaign. It’s picked the eventual winner in every contested GOP campaign for more than 30 years.
And although he won the endorsement of the state’s popular governor, Nikki Haley, Romney’s still not filling them with love.

Romney inspires all the enthusiasm of ‘Vegetables Are Our Friends’ week in the school cafeteria. Water Schapiro, the New Republic

In fact, even more Republicans now say they’d prefer someone else to enter the race, than four months ago. The latest poll for CBS shows 58% republican primary voters want more choice of candidates – just over one in three are satisfied with the current field.
So, a window of opportunity, perhaps, for the rest.

Vulture culture

Rick Perry, who’s pinned the sum total of his rapidly diminishing hopes there, gave New Hampshire a miss to spend time down south attacking Mitt. His latest broadside likened Romney to a “vulture” – waiting for a company to get sick before swooping in and eating the carcass. And this from the man who just called Barack Obama a socialist. Whatever his pitch, though, it doesn’t seem to be translating into votes. Most polls show him flailing with between 2-5%.

The sweater vest vote

Rick Santorum – remember him? He was the guy with all the momentum. Or was that Jon Huntsman? No matter. Rick’s been making reasonable ground in the South Carolina polls, and wants to prove he’s the viable alternative to Romney. He’s gone so far as to say it’s his “best chance to win”, rallying support from evangelicals and religious conservatives. He’s got the endorsement of evangelical leader Gary Bauer, who described him as “a conservative leader for our times”. Plus in a largely lacklustre field, he’s the one that Republican voters say they might be able to get enthusiastic about.

Millionaire friends

But Santorum has a rival for that conservative vote: Newt Gingrich. So far he’s managed a fairly solid, if unspectacular showing in what he’s calling his ‘must-win’ state – and at least he gets a decent crowd turning out to his events. Plus Gingrich has the added benefit of huge money behind him. Yes, the man who condemned Romney for his “millionaire friends” is being fuelled in South Carolina by a $3.4 million advertising spend, courtesy of, well, HIS millionaire friends.

Advertising blitz

The first Gingrich attack ads have already begun airing, going hard after Romney’s record on abortion rights. In fact, the bleary eyed citizens of South Carolina have been bombarded with some 5,500 political ads in total. As they collectively reach for the fast forward button on their Tivo remote controls – there’s presumably a new joy to come in the battle to win over the undecideds: robo calls.

Turn off the television. Stay away from the phone. Eleven days can feel like an awfully long time in politics.

Felicity Spector is the US politics expert for Channel 4 News. Follow her on Twitter @felicityspector