21 Nov 2010

Nato agrees Afghanistan exit strategy

Nato agrees with Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai to hand control to Afghan forces by the end of 2014. The decision will lead to more bloodshed, a Taliban spokesman warns Channel 4 News.

Reduced numbers of Nato forces will remain in the country in a support and training role after 2014, but the agreement between the Nato leaders means that effectively the war will end in four years.

The handover process is expected to begin next year, a decade after international forces entered the country in 2001.

Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “Today marks the beginning of a new phase in our mission in Afghanistan. I don’t foresee ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) troops in a combat role beyond 2014, provided of course that the security situation allows us to move into a more supportive role.

'This is a victory for the Taliban' 
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Channel 4 News they were "delighted" the US had failed to get extra troops to come to Afghanistan.

"This is a victory not only for Taliban but for all the Muslims, that the US and its allies are facing tough challenges and didn't announce additional troops for Afghanistan," said the Taliban spokesman, speaking on behalf of the council or "shura".

He questioned how, after nine years of failure in the "occupation" of Afghanistan, coalition forces expected to achieve more success in the next four years.

He added that the four year deadline would only lead to more bloodshed, but said the long-term strategy of the Taliban was development and peace.

"There will be more bloodshed and the Nato will suffer more casualties as the Afghan nation will not tolerate foreign occupation for a single day," he said.

Violence

There have been fears that a rise in violence in the country could make the handover target unrealistic. More than 2,200 foreign troops have died in the country in the war, and the death toll is rising – June 2010 was the most lethal for coalition forces yet, with 103 deaths.

President Karzai told a press conference at the Nato summit in Lisbon: “We are confident the transition will succeed to the Afghan authority, leadership and ownership, because I found today strong commitment by the international community.”

Nato agrees Afghanistan 2014 exit date (Reuters).

Public deserves a deadline

Prime Minister David Cameron said the UK public deserved a deadline.

“Nato has itself set a timeline up to 2014, by which time transition will be complete and Afghan forces will be in complete control,” he said.

“The deadline we’ve set of 2015 is beyond that and it is, if you like, a backstop. But let me be clear, it is a deadline and I think the British public deserve a deadline.”

Foreign Secretary William Hague agreed, adding that there was still a “phenomenal” amount of work to be done in the country.

The United States said, however, that it could not yet commit to the 2014 date.

A senior US official told reporters at the UN summit: “We’re the United States. We want to make our own decision based on our own read of the situation.”

'Taliban chuckle' 
If you listen carefully while you read the emailed Taliban statement you can almost hear them chuckle: "the invaders are doomed towards the same fate as those that tread this path before them" it says. They were responding to the news that Nato, meeting in Lisbon, has agreed "irreversible" transfer of control of Afghanistan to the Afghan government by the end of 2014, writes Krishnan Guru-Murthy.

However the NATO Secretary General Rasmussen warned the Taliban not to think they could just sit it out insisting foreign troops will remain in Afghanistan in a supporting role until there is stability. Whether this assurance really means anything when the political realities in Washington and London are pushing both governments towards getting their troops out is a harder question.

The logical conclusion must be that, unless the strategy of political engagement in Afghanistan can suddenly be made to work and bring stability, either the Taliban can just sit it out, or Nato troops will not really be coming home when Nato says. Watching the Stop the War demonstration in London today, it really does seem as though there is not a great deal between them and the political leaders anymore. It's just a question of timing.

The conflict is widely considered to be going badly for Nato forces, led by the United States. The Taliban view is that Nato troops cannot ‘win’: a view which seems to be increasingly echoed in countries fighting the war.

Mr Rasmussen said the withdrawal of combat forces did not mean that Afghanistan was being abandoned.

“Let there be no doubt about our continuing commitment,” he said. “Afghanistan’s fight against terrorism is of strategic, global importance. Which is why we will agree here today a long-term partnership between Nato and Afghanistan to endure beyond the end of our combat mission.”

Summit

Also at the Nato summit in Lisbon, Russia is expected to agree to head back to Afghanistan to help Nato in the final years of the conflict. Russia is also expected to be invited to join Nato’s missile defence shield plans.