TOP TORY TARGETS

Handicapped by the workings of the electoral system, the Conservative Party need a lead of 5% to draw level in seats and be 9% ahead to win the election. Michael Howard's party is tipped to make 20 gains at the low end of expectations and 80 seats at the higher end.

1. Cheadle
Held by Lib Dems by 33 votes, (0.1%)
The most marginal seat in the UK is on the fringes of Manchester. In 2001, an advance by the Lib Dems of 5% secured them the seat. The contest will be a rerun of last time with Stephen Day battling Patsy Calton to regain the seat he once held for 14 years. The Lib Dems remain strong here and are in control of Stockport Metropolitan Council but the Tories won both wards at Bramhall in the 2004 local elections and could counter-attack. It is thought they must regain this seat to make a recovery nationally.
2005 candidate: Stephen Day

2. Dumfries & Galloway
Held by Labour by 141 votes, (0.3%)
This constituency resulted from a boundary change sees the only Tory seat in Scotland (Galloway and Upper Nithsdale) merge with most Labour part of the old Dumfries constituency. Also, the Scottish National Party are expected to challenge strongly.
2005 candidate: Peter Duncan

3. Dorset South, Labour
By 153 votes, (0.3%)
This was one of Labour’s two gains at the last election and their first ever general election victory in the county. It is unlikely Labour territory but it is a port town with a naval base. Labour cannot afford to lose ground here but MP Jim Knight is up against a very strong Liberal Democrat candidate whose party has power locally.
2005 candidate: Ed Matts

4. Braintree, Labour
By 358 votes, (0.7%)
A tenuous constituency which Labour was surprised to win 1997. MP Alan Hurst is expected to be up against Brooks Newmark in his second attempt at the seat.
2005 candidate: Brooks Newmark

5. Weston-Super-Mare, Lib Dems
By 338 votes, (0.7%)
For many years a Tory seat and a tough target as the Lib Dems improved their position in the local body elections in 2003 but will have to squeeze the Labour vote to hold the seat.
2005 candidate: John Penrose

6. Norfolk North, Lib Dems
By 483 votes, (0.9%)
Even though they lost, the Tories achieved one of the top 50 increases in the Conservative vote but a drop in Labour support saw the seat go to the Lib Dems. The 2003 local elections were very close. Iain Dale, the first openly gay Tory candidate, is expected to fight a close battle with Lib Dem Norman Lamb.
2005 candidate: Iain Dale

7. Monmouth, Labour
By 384 votes, (0.9%)
Labour’s Huw Edwards hung on to the seat in 2001 but the Assembly seat gained by the Tories in 1999 was held with an increased majority. Also the Tory candidate, David Davies, is their Assembly representative.
2005 candidate: David Davies

8. Dorset Mid & Poole North
Lib Dems, by 384 votes, (0.9%)
It will be a tough fight for Simon Hayes to displace Annette Brooke of the Lib Dems, which has the edge in the rural areas.
2005 candidate: Simon Hayes

9. Lancaster & Wyre
Labour, by 481 votes, (0.9%)
Hilton Dawson’s win in 2001 was a result of a static Tory vote where up to 3,000 voters supported the Greens locally but voted Labour. The huge number of students could see Labour’s support dwindling and the level of tactical voting seen in 2001 may diminish.
2005 candidate: Ben Wallace

10. Guildford Lib Dems, by 538 votes, (1.1%)
The loss of Guildford after the Lib Dems got it on a high swing was one of the heaviest blows for the Tories and the party will be itching to get it back in the most liberal and metropolitan seat in Surrey.
2005 candidate: Anne Milton

OTHER TORY TARGETS