The Liberal Democrats had a good run during the 2001 parliament, gaining two by-election wins from Labour and two near misses. They hope to make further inroads on Labour and the Tories and have talked confidently about increasing their 52 seats up to possibly 80 seats. However this is ambitious given that this requires at least 10 or rather 20 net gains from the Tories because of the limited chances of gaining from Labour.
1. Taunton
Held by Tory by 235 votes (0.4%)
his is the most vulnerable to a Lib Dem attack but it may stay in Tory hands. After the gain of the seat in 1997, the local Lib Dems lost the council and polled badly in the Euro elections in 1999. There are few signs of a powerful Lib Dem recovery as the Tories did even better in the 2003 council elections than in 1999. New Lib Dem candidate Jeremy Browne will hope to woo votes, but recent defeats suggest they are further behind than the 235 votes indicate.
2005 candidate: Jeremy Browne
2. Orpington,
Tory, 269 votes (0.5%) 2005
Tory John Horam and Lib Dem Chris Maines will be fighting each other for the fourth time and in each of the elections, the Lib Dems have come closer and closer. The area will be deluged with Lib Dems workers come election time and the party is favoured to win.
2005 candidate: Chris Maines
3. Surrey South West
Tory, 861 votes (1.7%)
Here the Labour vote is squeezed and is a tight battle between the Tories and the Lib Dems with very close finishes in the 2001 general and county council elections. The prosperous demographic and the fierce fight between parties have always ensured a high turnout.
2005 candidate: Simon Cordon
4. Cardiff Central
Labour by 659 votes (1.9%)
Labour's huge majority has gone from 8,000 down to just 659. Given that the Lib Dems have advanced considerably since 2001 and there are a large number of students here, it is unlikely that Labour will be able to hold on. At the 1999 Assembly elections, the Liberal Democrats won comfortably by 42 per cent and they dominated at the Cardiff council elections in 2004.
2005 candidate: Jenny Willott
5. Inverness
Labour, by 1,134 votes (2.7%)
This is a revised constituency seat that brings together the whole town of Inverness. The result is difficult to predict as most local elections are fought between independent candidates. The new boundaries are likely to benefit the Lib Dems at the expense of the SNP, who held the old Inverness East seat in the Scottish parliamentary elections.
2005 candidate: Danny Alexander
6. Dorset West
Tory, 1,414 (2.9%)
This rural area has mainly a Tory tradition and Oliver Letwin's small majority will be under threat. However, the shadow chancellor's larger national profile compared to in 2001 should swing it his way. If not, however, it could cause a major upset to the Tory's shadow cabinet.
2005 candidate: Justine McGuinness
7. Haltemprice & Howden
Tory, 1903 votes (4.3%)
David Davis faces a battle with the Lib Dems who have increased their showing at recent elections. Key to their success in 2001 was the squeezing of the Labour vote who only polled 10% in the last local elections. At the 2003 local polls however, there was a shift from the Lib Dems towards the Tories.
2005 candidate: Jon Neal
8. Isle of Wight
Tory, 2,826 votes (4.5%)
The UK's largest constituency in population, it looks like an unlikely bet for a Lib Dem comeback after a poor showing in the last European elections although they have a strong candidate in Anthony Rowlands. The Lib Dems gained it in 1997 but lost it to the Tories last time round after a large swing. Andrew Turner is favourite to retain the seat for the Tories.
2005 candidate: Anthony Rowlands
9. Eastbourne
Tory, 2,154 votes (4.8%)
Historically closely fought between the Tories and the Lib Dems, the Lib Dems will try to get hold of some of the Labour share of 13% of votes to put them ahead. The Tories captured control of Eastbourne council in 2004 hinting that victory may elude Kennedy's party again.
2005 candidate: Stephen Lloyd
10. Wells
Tory, 2,796 votes (5.4%)
The Tories did well in the 2003 local elections and took a lead over the Lib Dems in 2004 Euro election but this is one seat the Lib Dems have always struggled with. Their candidate Tessa Munt is a good campaigner who got a good result in the Ipswich by-election in 2001. Although there are Labour votes up for grabs, Tory David Heathcoat-Amory is favourite to win.
2005 candidate: Tessa Munt
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