16 Mar 2015

Israel elections: will Netanyahu cling to power?

Benjamin Netanyahu says there will be no Palestinian state if he is re-elected. He faces a struggle to hold on to power, but much depends on the fate of smaller parties, as Inigo Gilmore reports.

Opinion polls show Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party trailing the centre-left Zionist Union alliance, led by Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni. The latest polling suggests the alliance will win 24-26 seats on Tuesday, with Likud picking up 20-22, in the 120-seat Knesset.

Coalition government beckons again for Israel, where no single party has won an overall majority since the country’s first election in 1949.

Taking past political affiliations and current policies into consideration, more parties seem likely to favour joining Likud in a coalition.

Mr Netanyahu could form a government with a clutch of ultra-nationalist, Jewish Orthodox and centrist parties that have either already pledged their support or not ruled it out.

Unity government?

The arithmetic is much harder for the centre-left, although it is not impossible that they could assemble a narrow coalition if they win. A national unity government, including Likud and the Zionist Union, also cannot be ruled out.

Parties representing Israel’s Arab minority have for the first time formed a united list. They are currently polling at around 13 seats, which could make them the third largest group. It would be the first time in Israel’s history that Arab parties have held such sway.

If Netanyahu wins, he is likely to continue to exert pressure on the US over Iran’s nuclear programme. Jewish settlement building is also likely to continue in the occupied West Bank.

Binyamin Netanyahu has served three terms as prime minister.