US prepares for first presidential contest

The first day of America’s election year – and the first contest is just days away. As ever, the first-in-the-nation honour goes to Iowa, where Republicans will decide who is their current favourite in the unpredictable presidential race.

With many voters still undecided, the candidates have been making their final pitch for support, in a contest where almost everyone has taken a turn as front runner.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney [pictured], who likes to pitch himself as the presumptive nominee, has been particularly buoyed up by the latest Des Moines Register poll, putting him a few points ahead of Texas congressman Ron Paul.

Although all the momentum seems to be swinging behind a man who was all but written off until now – former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. He appealed to party activists to rally behind him, scoffing at the deep pockets of his rivals: “You can’t buy Iowa”, he declared, “You’ve got to go out and work for Iowa votes”.

The poll was rather less welcome news for the one-time favourite in Iowa, Newt Gingrich, whose sudden surge has now totally melted away – and bad news too, for Michelle Bachmann, who’s been left trailing in her home state where she was once tipped to win. Despite the dwindling crowds at her events, she’s been insisting she won’t be pulling out – telling those few that did turn up – “I’m the lady for winning!”

A volatile race

But this has been such a volatile race, where anyone who’s basically not Mitt Romney has at one stage or another, enjoyed a brief heady moment on top of the polls. Brief, because the intense glare of media scrutiny plus a slew of negative ads from their rivals has turned a surge into a rout.

The steady, hard work (and multi-million dollar budget, of course) of Mitt Romney could yet outlast them all. Not just his megabucks, either, but the outside groups known as super PACs, spending their own millions to endorse him, even if they’re not allowed to work alongside his official campaign.

He had been playing down his expectations in the Hawkeye state, where he was pretty comprehensively four years ago – but after a last-minute flurry on the ground, it’s now being talked about as his to lose.

Not that any outcome is clear yet – Tuesday’s poll is looking as unpredictable as the campaign. And Iowa has never been known as a reliable predictor of the party’s final nominee. But what’s key here is that old chestnut – momentum, and the long game.

Next on the election calendar – the New Hampshire primary: another maverick state, but one where Mitt Romney is comfortably expected to win. He’s got the money. He’s been doing the hard work. Now he must be hoping voters will finally stop looking for the ‘anyone but Romney’ candidate, and rally behind him, at last.

Felicity Spector is the US politics expert for Channel 4 News. Find her on Twitter @felicityspector