England’s hardest challenge as they face the All Blacks

Never has a disaster movie had a more certain end, writes Ben Monro-Davies. The England rugby team has swung to new lows over the last fortnight – beaten at home by Australia and South Africa.

They have fallen down the world rankings with disastrous consequences for the draw in World Cup 2015. Their captain has been pilloried for a bizarre series of on the field decisions.

Hopes that a new coaching regime might finally return England to world-class status lie in the Twickenham mud, where tomorrow they now face the hardest challenge of all, New Zealand.

Freakishly brilliant

The All Blacks are on an unbeaten 20-match run. They are already world champions. Their freakishly brilliant fly-half, Dan Carter, returns from injury.

Bookmakers expect them to win by 15 points. There is no-one predicting an England victory – indeed should they win, it would rank with the biggest upsets in the history of the game.

Such certainty about the outcome can, of course, provide useful reverse psychology for the underdog. But rationalists rather than romantics see only one outcome, and such unanimity is a fair reflection of the state of rugby in the two competing nations.

New Zealand rugby is in an almost perfect condition. They have dominated the game for the last decade – only a famous panic attack in Cardiff denied them a World Cup victory in 2007 as well as 2011.

But they also play a type of rugby that delights the fans of the teams they thrash. They may be raised in the rains of North and South Island, but they fling they ball across the pitch with the abandon of players on a Caribbean beach.

Many of their forwards have the speed and skill of backs. Many of their backs the power of forwards. As was once said of Jack Nicklaus in golf, they play a game with which no-one else is familiar.

Sorry state

And then there is England, a team who currently cannot find a traditional open-side flanker worthy of selection. Instead they ask their captain Chris Robshaw to fill the role. Not one of them would challenge to be in a World XV. Only the poverty of Wales, Ireland and Scotland means they will feature in the British Lions squad next summer.

How English rugby came to find itself in this state given that in 2003 they won the World Cup is unclear. But many are already writing them off for the next competition in 2015, held of course, in England.

Euphoria would install them as favourites should they end the All Black march. But never has it been harder to seen an England victory – and don’t forget, they are even playing at home.

Ben Monro-Davies is senior programme editor at Channel 4 News. He writes on golf and rugby union