Death toll in New Zealand set to keep climbing

New Zealand rescue teams are continuing to comb the rubble in Christchurch, in search of earthquake survivors. Increasingly the efforts appear to be in vain though as hopes fade to find anyone left alive.

Police are still considering the mission as a rescue operation however, and teams from across the world including the UK, and the US, are helping in the arduous job of uncovering sites in the city now turned to rubble.

But it is now considered the crushed city’s TV station contains no-one left alive and the number of people dead will take some time to establish although it is believed there could be as many as 120 people beneath the wreckage of the building.

Police said the number of overall confirmed dead is now at 98, although that was expected to rise with 226 people still missing after Tuesday’s 6.3-magnitude earthquake. The UK Foreign Office confirmed that two British nationals were amongst those who had been killed.

Despite the lack of positive rescues, search teams continue to pick through the rubble in hope of finding anyone still alive. One of the team members told reporters: “Miracles happen and we’re keeping that in the forefront of our minds. That sort of thing drives you and pushes you on.”

It’s estimated aftershocks will continue over the next few days. There’s still a great deal of danger on the ground in Christchurch. Michael Gillies-Smith, Red Cross

Concerns about the effect of aftershocks continue as repeated shaking continues around the epicentre of the quake. With buildings teetering on collapse acrose tha capital and in surrounding settlements and towns, rescue teams fear yet more damage and loss of life could be caused as well as making rescue sites.

Aftershocks

The number of aftershocks from the earthquake continues to rise with the figure standing at around 50.

The New Zealand Red Cross has rescue teams on the ground helping the authorities search for any survivors.

The charity’s Michael Gillies-Smith told Channel 4 News: “It’s estimated those aftershocks will continue over the next few days and that a number of those will be of magnitude five or greater.

“That’s making the rescue situation very, very dangerous and very difficult so there’s still a great deal of danger on the ground in Christchurch at the moment.”

The 6.3 magnitude quake was the second to hit the historic tourist city in five months.

It was New Zealand’s most deadly natural disaster for 80 years, and the damage could cost £7.5 billion.

Hundreds of people crammed into Christchurch Airport on Wednesday trying to leave the city, but many flights remained delayed or cancelled.

A national state of emergency has been declared, and soldiers in armoured personnel carriers patrolled Christchurch city. Police will impose a curfew from 6.30 pm in the badly hit central business district area.

It is the country’s worst natural disaster since a 1931 earthquake in the North Island city of Napier which killed 256. Geological expert, Professor Dave Petley of Durham University, told Channel 4 News that if the earthquake had been measured at 8.0 then at that depth, it could have effected the whole of the South Island.

Professor Petley also highlighted that the fault line through the Christchurch area was completely unknown before last year’s initial quake near to the city and had probably not been disturbed in almost 10,000 years. The latest earthquake was not completely unexpected, as it is common for an aftershock on a recently hit fault line to occur with a magnitude one level down on the Richter Scale.

Channel 4 News Live Blog: Dozens dead after New Zealand earthquake

Geologists have suggested that New Zealand's tough planning regulations may well have prevented many more buildings from collapsing. 

Dr David Rothery of the Open University told Channel 4 News that most modern buildings were designed to be "life safe"

"New Zealand has some of the most stringent anti earthquake building codes in the world and they have an insurance scheme to pay for repairs that's underwritten by the government. And if you take out household insurance you have to pay an earthquake levy.

 "So the buildings there have been built of pretty high standards. I think without that, the devastation and the death toll in Christchurch would have been a lot lot worse. "You can build buildings that can withstand magnitude seven and six earthquakes very close by. Bigger earthquakes that are closer are very hard to withstand. 

"But at least you can make them that they don't fall down and kill people - this is the concept of making them life safe. 

"You may have to demolish them after the event because they are no longer safe to continue to occupy - but you can make buildings that don't fall down during an earthquake."

Dave Petley, Professor of Geology at Durham University told Channel 4 News why the Christchurch shocks have caused so much damage

"The level of damage from the Christchurch earthquake is exceptionally high. From a global insurance perspective this is likely to be one of the most expensive earthquakes of all time, and it is likely to rank as the first or second worst natural disaster in the history of New Zealand in terms of loss of life. It is very interesting to note that the Mw = 7.1 earthquake in September caused no loss of life, where as this Mw = 6.3 event may have killed 300 people. Clearly magnitude is not the only indicator of mortality risk.

"This earthquake is extraordinary in that it is in effect a direct hit on a major city. The map above shows that the area with high levels of shaking is quite small, but it so happens that Christchurch occupies this space. This is exquisitely bad fortune. That modern buildings have collapsed so catastrophically is an indication of this.

"New Zealand has a very strong and intensely-imposed earthquake building code. Many structures have performed well given the very high levels of shaking. However, Christchurch is a city with many older masonry buildings, which were certainly not designed to be resistant to earthquakes in most cases. Building codes do require progressive retrofitting of older buildings, but this is often a slow and expensive business. 

"It is notable that there have been no reports of children trapped in schools, in contrast to both the Wenchuan and Kashmir earthquakes. Schools have been targeted for seismic strengthening in New Zealand - for obvious reasons and because in many cases schools become the local centre for relief efforts. This appears to have been successful, which is to the credit of the authorities.

"Soft sediments can also tend to amplify shaking, so it may well be that a part of the reason for the intense shaking was a site effect associated with the sediments under the city. This is going to be a key issue in the aftermath of the earthquake as plans are drawn up to rebuild the area."

Professor Petley is a member of the American Geophysical Union and you can read more on the science behind the quake on their website.