Lord Ashcroft: Labour would take 93 seats from Tories

According to the poll of more than 19,000 adults in 213 constituencies, the Conservatives would lose 93 marginal seats to Labour, and the Liberal Democrats would lose 13 seats.

The results, revealed by Lord Ashcroft on Saturday, say that the Conservatives would only retain 16 of its most marginal seats where Labour was in second place at the last election.

‘Challenge in perspective’

Lord Ashcroft said: “I don’t want to see a Labour majority of four, let alone 84, but I hope this puts the challenge into some sort of perspective.

“We have a long way to go to hold onto the seats we gained last time, let alone pick up many more. But things are slightly less grim than the headline polls suggest, and we have everything to play for.”

The swing towards Labour, the poll suggests, is largest around Kent, the Midlands and in some northern seats. However, the data shows Labour would have more difficulty overturning the Conservatives in southern towns and London.

Lib Dem slump

The data does not show as severe a result for the Conservatives at a general election than other national polls have suggested. In total Labour would gain 109 seats, giving Ed Miliband 367 MPs in the House of Commons, an overall majority of 84.

This compares to a Labour majority of 114 that would be achieved on a “uniform swing” according to current national polls.

The Liberal Democrats would suffer to both Labour and the Conservatives, the data says. Of the Liberal Democrat seats in England and Wales, Nick Clegg would lose 17 to the Conservatives and 13 to Labour – including two where Labour finished third in 2010.