'Danger of coup in Zimbabwe'

Military hardliners in Zimbabwe may be plotting to prevent the opposition from toppling President Robert Mugabe, a respected think tank has warned.

The International Crisis Group has called for African diplomacy with the aim of installing a national unity government led by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

The think tank believes this would be the best way to resolve a crisis caused by disputed elections on March 29, adding that Western diplomacy would have a limited impact.

It said continued rule by Mr Mugabe, who has led the southern African country since independence from Britain in 1980, would be "catastrophic" for a nation already suffering inflation of 165,000 per cent and 80 per cent unemployment.

The ICG said military commanders opposed to Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Mr Tsvangirai had been instrumental in preventing a democratic transition.

"There is growing risk of a coup either before a run-off (in a pre-emptive move to deny Mr Tsvangirai victory) or after a Tsvangirai win," the ICG said. The run-off is on June 27.

The warning comes after the MDC accused military intelligence agents of plotting to kill Mr Tsvangirai, forcing him to postpone his return to the country from Europe over the weekend.

"We know there are 18 snipers, and the military intelligence directorate is in charge of this," MDC secretary general Tendai Biti said.

Mr Mugabe is highly unlikely to accept a free and fair run-off vote against Mr Tsvangirai, in which he would be "humiliatingly defeated", the think tank said.

Intimidation, torture and murder by Mr Mugabe's supporters since the March poll "preclude the possibility of holding a credible run-off," it added.

Official results showed Mr Tsvangirai beat Mr Mugabe in the presidential election but fell short of the absolute majority needed for outright victory. In a parallel poll, Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF lost control of parliament for the first time.

The ICG report said African mediation must address the loyalty of the security forces as a priority.

It said failure to do so "would risk a Tsvangirai victory leading to a military coup or martial law and the security services splitting along factional lines".

A transitional government would need substantial participation by Zanu-PF members and would implement constitutional reforms before paving the way for free elections.

The ICG said that if it was impossible to avoid the run-off by forming a transitional government, then there must be an immediate stop to violence, and strong monitoring by the regional grouping SADC, the African Union and the United Nations.

The report was sharply critical of South African President Thabo Mbeki who it said had "continued to shield Mugabe". It said his reluctance to criticise the veteran Zimbabwean leader or condemn the post-election violence had badly undermined his credibility.

© Independent Television News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

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