Cook tips Brown
Updated on 12 April 2005
Former foreign secretary Robin Cook predicts Tony Blair will stand down to make way for Gordon Brown "sooner rather than later" if Labour wins.
Robin Cook predicts an early retirtement by Blair if Labour win
Cook, who has been tipped for a return to the Cabinet if Brown does become Prime Minister, said that the emergence of the Chancellor at the centre of Labour's election campaign would have "profound political consequences".
In an article for , the Evening Standard newspaper, he said Brown was able to appeal to voters fed up with "spin, gloss and makeovers.
"The past week has seen a decisive shift in the balance of power between them," he said.
"Blair is vulnerable to getting the blame if there are Labour losses on election night. Brown is going to get the credit for steadying the erosion in support for the party.
"Short of Labour increasing its majority in Parliament it is hard to see an outcome that will not leave Brown a stronger figure."
He warned that after the election, Mr Blair would find it increasingly difficult to rally Labour MPs who associated his pledge to be "unremittingly New Labour" with unpopular policies such as university tuition fees.
"Next time round, Blair will have lost authority to sweep Labour MPs behind him in pursuing any more such dramatic and unpopular personal initiatives," he said.
Mr Cook said that only a couple of months ago he had been told by a member of the Prime Minister's inner circle that Mr Blair would follow a third General Election victory by sending a pantechnicon to remove Mr Brown from the Treasury.
Since then however, Mr Brown alone among the Cabinet had been given a public guarantee by Mr Blair that he would keep his post after May 5.
"Some day that removal van will appear outside the Treasury. But the irony is that it will be there to shift Brown's files into Number 10," he said.
"The first week of the election campaign suggests that day may come sooner rather than later."
Mr Cook said that Mr Brown's claims to succeed Mr Blair - who has said that he only wants to serve one more term in Number 10 - rested on his economic record and his unflashy personal style.
"The public have had it up to the back teeth with spin, gloss and makeovers. They find Brown an attractive alternative precisely because he is not flash. The most common response of focus groups is that with Brown, you get what you see," he said.
In contrast, he said that Mr Blair was still dogged by questions of trust in the wake of the Iraq war.
Mr Cook's comments are likely to be seen as further evidence that Labour MPs are already positioning themselves for the battle for the succession once the election is over.
Mr Cook, who resigned from the Cabinet over the Iraq war, has been a highly effective critic of Mr Blair while at the same time seeking to build bridges towards Mr Brown with whom he had a long-running feud.
