Are Scots the brightest?

The Claim
Scottish First Minister Jack McConnell said: "Scots at the age of 15 are amongst the highest performing young people in the world in maths, literacy and science."
Speech at the Labour Party Conference, 24 September, 2006.

Background
Seven years after Labour created home rule in Scotland, first minister Jack McConnell was in the mood to boast about its achievements.

According to McConnell, his party's education policies have turned the nation's youngsters into some of the biggest brain-boxes on the planet.

Analysis
It certainly is a bold claim, that out of the world's 192 countries - not including Vatican City - Scotland's teenagers are among the best performers in the classroom.

The first minister's claim is based on a report published in December 2004, called the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

This assessment includes all 30 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD), as well as 11 others - of which Scotland is one.

Herein lies the first problem: when McConnell mentions the world in this context, he is actually only referring to 41 nations. That's between a quarter and one fifth of the world, not the whole world, and not quite so impressive.

The most populous countries such as China, Russia and India are not included either, so that's a few million 15-year-olds overlooked.

Coupled with McConnell's diminished view of the planet, the study does not even include findings for neighbouring England. For all we know the Scots could be lagging behind their southern rivals, a factor that would undoubtedly undermine the First Minister's boasts.

Tower of PISA
On to the PISA results themselves - how does Scotland perform?

Eight other countries score higher for maths than Scotland and nations such as Korea, Finland and Holland take a significant lead. Scottish 15-year-olds are ahead of 32 other nations with the Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland and New Zealand only a few points behind.

In fact, as a PISA report to the Scottish Executive points out, Scotland only significantly outperformed 17 other countries. Remember, there are 192 nations in the world.

Finland, Korea and Canada take the lead for reading. Although Scotland does better than average, the Scot's literacy performance has dropped since PISA's 2000 study; this suggests Labour's classroom policies were perhaps not all one big success story, as McConnell makes out.

In science, again eight nations outperformed Scotland - with brain-boxes Finland, Korea and Japan streets ahead of the competition. Scotland is above average but by no means among the swots.

It must be noted that of the 41 countries included in the research, the vast majority would be considered first world nations. Therefore it's safe to assume Scotland is being compared with strong educational counterparts.

All in the timing
In all three categories - maths, science and reading - Scotland fared better than most.

But, aside from the results, another factor needs to be considered: when the PISA research was carried out.

Although the report was published at the end of 2004, the actual research - when the children were tested - was carried out in 2003.

This means the vast majority of the educational life of the 15 year-olds taking the tests will have been under an education system not administered by Labour-endorsed home rule; so it might not be completely fair for Mr McConnell to claim all the credit.

McConnell attributes Scotland's educational performance to "new schools, more teachers, smaller class sizes, quality pre-school education and higher expectations for excellence in the classroom."

But could all that really have been up and running within four years of home rule coming into power? It seems a bit of a leap of faith.

FactCheck Rating: 3.5 (How ratings work)

Verdict
McConnell wants to show everyone what a good job Labour is doing in Scotland, and it's no surprise he will seize on a report which shows that the country's 15-year-olds are doing well in the classroom.

But to describe them as being "amongst the highest performing" in the world is a bit of a stretch. The actual research cited shows Scottish youngsters are only significantly better than 17 other nations in certain categories, in a study that only took in less than a fourth of the world's countries and doesn't even include neighbouring England.

Sources
List of OECD members
Report of 2003 PISA findings for the Scottish Executive
PISA report published in December 2004
Jack McConnell's speech


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