Poll of Polls: still no sign of clear winner
Updated on 02 May 2010
With just four days left until voters go to the polls, the latest surveys of public opinion continue to suggest no clear winner. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, examines the latest trends.
We report six new national polls today, and they continue to suggest that there will be no clear winner of the election.
Polling Commentary
We report six new national polls today, all but one of which give the Conservatives the edge in terms of national voting intention, but not by enough to secure a majority in the House of Commons.
ComRes, for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, is most favourable to the Conservatives, awarding them 38 per cent of the vote, which is three points higher than their average score of 35 per cent.
OnePoll, for the People, puts the Lib Dems on top with 32 per cent of the vote, three points above their average score of 29 per cent.
The pollster with the best news for Labour is ICM, for the Sunday Telegraph, giving them 29 per cent, three points above their average score of 26 per cent.
Based on these figures, the Conservatives would be the largest party in the House of Commons, though well short of an overall majority. Today’s News of the World also reports a poll of the marginals, by ICM Research, which suggests that the Tories will win 311 seats, 15 short of a majority.
National Polls
Angus Reid/Sunday Express: Con 35, Lib Dem 29, Lab 23
BPIX/Mail on Sunday: Con 34, Lib Dem 30, Lab 27
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/IoS: Con 38, Lab 28, Lib Dem 25
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Con 36, Lab 29, Lib Dem 27
OnePoll/People: Lib Dem 32, Con 30, Lab 21
YouGov/Sunday Times: Con 35, Lib Dem 28, Lab 27
Taking a raw average of these polls puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent and Labour on 26 per cent.
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' has the Conservatives on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.
The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would on this basis win 278 seats in the House of Commons, Labour 250 seats and the Liberal Democrats 91 seats. This would leave the Tories 52 short of an overall majority.
Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today:
Conservatives: 292 seats
Labour: 228 seats
Liberal Democrat: 95 seats
Others: 35 seats
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent, with Labour on 27 per cent.
This means a hung parliament remains a strong possibility.
On these figures, the Political Forecasting Unit's ANS (adjusted national swing) methodology projects the following seats distribution: Con: 292 seats, Lab 228 seats, Lib Dem 95 seats.
An analysis of the money placed in political betting markets also suggests that no party will secure a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.
Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 26 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent
Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 292 seats
Labour: 228 seats
Liberal Democrat: 95 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 34
Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 324 seats
Labour: 206 seats
Liberal Democrat: 86 seats
Other: 34 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 2 seats
Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 52.7 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.7 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.6 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 45.0 per cent
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
