Poll of Polls: no party will win election outright
Updated on 04 May 2010
With just two days left until voters go to the polls, today's surveys of public opinion suggest that no party will win an overall majority. Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, examines the latest trends.
There are three new national polls today, each suggesting that there will be no clear winner of Thursday's general election.
Polling Commentary
All three new polls give the Conservatives the edge in terms of national voting intention, though not by enough to win an overall majority.
YouGov, for the Sun, puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and Labour both on 28 per cent.
Opinium, for the Daily Express, has the Conservatives on 33 per cent, with Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 27 per cent.
Com Res, for ITV News and the Independent, has the Conservatives on 37 per cent (down one compared to the last ComRes poll), Labour on 28 per cent (up one) and Liberal Democrats on 26 per cent (up one).
Based on these figures, no party would be anywhere close to winning an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons.
There are also two polls of the marginals to report. Crosby/Textor for the Daily Telegraph, polled 140 Labour marginals and 20 Lib Dem marginals.
Their results indicate a swing of 7.5 per cent from Labour to the Tories, but a swing of 3 per cent from the Tories to the Lib Dems.
This can be translated into a net gain of 103 seats for the Conservatives from Labour but a net loss of 13 seats from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, which may be viewed as equivalent to a national total for the Conservatives of 299 seats.
This would leave them 27 seats short of a majority.
Ipsos/Mori for Reuters paint a similar picture in their poll of Labour/Conservative marginals. This shows a swing of 7 per cent from Labour to Tory, a little less than found by Crosby/Textor.
Ipsos/Mori did not, however, include any Liberal Democrat marginals, any Labour/Lib Dem marginals, or any Tory/Lib Dem marginals in their sample. But the evidence they do produce suggests a national result pretty similar to that indicated by Crosby/Textor.
National Polls
ComRes/ITV News/Independent: Con 37, Lab 29, Lib Dem 26
Opinium/Daily Express: Con 33, Labour 28, Lib Dem 27
YouGov/Sun: Con 35, Lab 28, Lib Dem 28
Taking a simple raw average of these polls puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 27 per cent.
Poll tracker
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 28 per cent and Labour on 28 per cent.
The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would on this basis win 272 seats in the House of Commons, Labour 261 seats and the Liberal Democrats 86 seats. This would make the Conservatives the largest party but 54 short of an overall majority.
Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today: Conservatives: 286 seats, Labour: 239 seats, Liberal Democrat: 90 seats Others: 35 seats.
During the last month, the polls show support for the three main UK parties has tightened significantly. This is how the polls look today compared to start of the election campaign.
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 28 per cent.
On these figures, the Political Forecasting Unit's ANS (adjusted national swing) methodology projects the following seats distribution: Con: 286 seats, Lab 239 seats, Lib Dem 90 seats.
Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 35 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 27 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 28 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent
Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 286 seats
Labour: 239 seats
Liberal Democrat: 90 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 40
Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 320 seats
Labour: 210seats
Liberal Democrat: 85 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 6 seats.
Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 46.4 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.9 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.6 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 51.1 per cent (Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
