Poll of Polls: no party will win an overall majority
Updated on 05 May 2010
With just hours to go until the election campaign finishes, the opinion polls suggest the parties need to fight for every vote. Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, examines who is on top.
There are three new national polls today, each suggesting that there will be no clear winner tomorrow night.
Polling Commentary
All the three new polls give the Conservatives the edge in terms of national voting intention, though not by enough to win an overall majority.
The recent well-publicized calls for tactical voting in Tory/Labour and Tory/Lib Dem marginals may have an impact in terms of seats won for a given national vote share, but no such supposition is needed to project a 'hung' parliament based on the latest polling evidence.
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ComRes, for ITV News and the Independent, puts the Conservatives on 37 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 26 per cent. All these figures are unchanged from yesterday's ComRes poll.
Harris, for the Metro, puts the Conservatives on 36 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 28 per cent and Labour on 26 per cent.
YouGov, for the Sun, has the Conservatives on 35 per cent, unchanged on yesterday, but Labour gaining two points on 30 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are given 24 per cent, way out of line with any YouGov poll since the first debate.
Yesterday's YouGov poll, for example, gave the Lib Dems 28 per cent. Either a day is a very long time in politics, or this is an outlier.
Based on these figures, no party would be close to winning an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons.
National Polls
ComRes/ITV News/Independent: Con 37, Lab 29, Lib Dem 26 Harris/Metro: Con 36, Lib Dem 28, Lab 26
YouGov/Sun: Con 35, Lab 30, Lib Dem 24
Taking a simple raw average of these polls puts the Conservatives on 36 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 26 per cent.
Poll tracker
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 27 per cent.
The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 273 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 266 seats and the Liberal Democrats 80 seats. This would make Labour the largest party but 53 short of an overall majority.
Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today: Conservatives: 281 seats, Labour: 250 seats, Liberal Democrat: 84 seats Others: 35 seats.
With the latest well-publicized calls for tactical voting, however, it is possible that a new dynamic will be thrown up, in which the consciousness of Labour voters has been raised to vote Liberal Democrat in Tory/Lib Dem marginals, and Lib Dem voters to side with Labour in Tory/Labour marginals.
If this happens in unusual numbers, the outcome in terms of seats may well be skewed from what is projected. At the moment, however, this is supposition, and no attempt has been made to adjust for this.
During the last month, the polls show support for the three main UK parties has tightened significantly.
This is how the polls look today compared to start of the election campaign.
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 27 per cent.
On these figures, the Political Forecasting Unit's ANS (adjusted national swing) methodology projects the following seats distribution: Con: 281 seats, Lab 250 seats, Lib Dem 84 seats.
Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 36 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 26 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent
Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency. Conservatives: 281 seats
Labour: 250 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 45
Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets) Conservative: 318 seats
Labour: 213 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 8 seats.
Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 46.4 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.9 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.6 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 51.1 per cent (Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
