FactCheck: patient neglect numbers
Updated on 27 August 2009
The Patients Association claims that one million patients rated their NHS care as poor. Can it really be so many?
The claim
"If this was...the whole of the NHS...it would equate to over 1m patients."
Patients Association report, 27 August 2009
The background
The Patients Association today released a report outlining the "dreadful, neglectful, demeaning, painful and sometimes downright cruel treatment" that some elderly patients have received from the NHS.
The report, which comes just two weeks after the popular #welovetheNHS campaign on Twitter, lead to headlines such as the Telegraph's "Cruel and neglectful care of one million NHS patients exposed". And there is no doubt that the stories told of patient experience are horrifying.
But FactCheck takes a look at the report and finds out where the "over 1m" claim came from. Read the Patients Association response here.
The analysis
The Patients Association says it produced the report as "an attempt to raise awareness of the failings in hospital care being highlighted to us every week through our Helpline phone calls, emails and letters."
Drawn from the association's database, the report goes on to detail some horrific examples of patient neglect. In total, 16 such cases studies were outlined, although it's clear from the report they could have detailed many more.
But where did the "over 1m" figure for the number of patients that had suffered at the hands of the NHS come from?
Well, it is not based on research carried out by the Patients Association after all. It is based on data provided in the National Inpatient Survey; previously produced by the now defunct Healthcare Commission, now under the remit of the Care Quality Commission.
Of course, pulling together such data is a mammoth task, and it is not a surprise the Patients Association had to plunder government-funded research to highlight overall figures. They could not be expected to have such resources themselves.
But this means the information is not new either. It relates to surveys carried out between 2002 and 2008, in which each year two per cent of patients who responded to the research rated their care as "poor".
So how does two per cent of respondents to a survey become more than 1m patients? The surveys started in 2002 and receive responses from about 75,000 patients a year. For example, in 2007, there were 76,000 respondents.
Two per cent of 76,000 is 1,520. So if you multiply that figure by the number of times the survey has been produced - which is seven years - you get a total of about 10,000. Not a million, but then not everyone has been surveyed.
So what the Patients Association then assumes is that two per cent of all hospital annual admissions - a total of 10m people a year - would rate the standard of their care as poor. This includes all kinds of patients of course, not just elderly care, which the report - forwarded by Claire Rayner - starts off by focussing on.
Two per cent of 10m is 200,000. If you multiply that by six years, which the report does, you get 1.2m - hence the "over 1m" patients claim.
The verdict
It is undeniable that the Patients Association have countless examples of poor care received by patients on the NHS. It is doubtless a vitally important issue.
But it is interesting to note that the "over 1m" patients estimate is much larger than the actual 1,500 patients a year saying the care they had received was poor.
FactCheck rating: 4
How ratings work
Every time a FactCheck article is published we'll give it a rating from zero to five.
The lower end of the scale indicates that the claim in question largerly checks out, while the upper end of the scale suggests misrepresentation, exaggeration, a massaging of statistics and/or language.
In the unlikely event that we award a 5 out of 5, our factcheckers have concluded that the claim under examination has absolutely no basis in fact.
Patients Assoc. response
The Patients Associaton has responded to our FactCheck on patient neglect numbers. Read their response here.
Your views
You've read the article, now have your say. We want to know your experiences and your views. We also want to know if there are any claims you want given the FactCheck treatment.
Email factcheck@channel4.com
FactCheck will correct significant errors in a timely manner. Readers should direct their enquiries to the editor at the email address above.
