5 Minute Guide: Scottish/Welsh elections

Last Modified: 02 Feb 2007

Who will win in the Scottish and Welsh elections? What happens if they do?

Scotland

Elections are due in May for the two devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

Most media attention is focusing on Scotland because it could signify a shift away from the Labour Party north of the border.

Scottish parliament, Holyrood (Credit: Reuters)

Ahead of elections to the Scottish parliament, a Channel 4 News/YouGov poll in early January indicated that Labour had fallen narrowly behind the Scottish National Party.

If those figures are correct, the SNP could have the most seats in a new Scottish Parliament, a result which would threaten the Labour-Liberal Democrat Scottish Executive administration of Jack McConnell.

But the SNP are far from achieving an absolute majority, so in order to run the Executive they would need to form a coalition, perhaps with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

However, the poll also revealed that the public would not yet support indendence for Scotland if an SNP-run administration were to call a referendum.

The d'Hondt method

Elections to the Scottish parliament use a complex system of proportional representation, called the d'Hondt method (also used in Wales).

Voters in 73 constituencies choose a local candidate on a first-past-the-post system.

They have a second vote for a top-up list of regional candidates. From these, 56 more are then allocated to the parties to bring the proportion of MSPs closer to the proportion of votes cast.

Defeat for Labour in Scotland would be a blow to Gordon Brown.

If they do form a government, the SNP is committed to pushing towards an independence vote. Although carrying no constitutional force, it would be a powerful political tool to demand the government introduce an Act in Parliament to dissolve the Union.

Defeat for Labour in Scotland would also be a blow to Gordon Brown just as he is preparing to take over from Tony Blair. Scotland is his political heartland and if he does become prime minister he will be the first from a Scottish constituency since 1964.

It would give Labour's political enemies the power to set the agenda and make trouble on a massive scale for them north of the border.

Wales

In Wales, meanwhile, Labour is currently leading a minority government, though support among other parties is divided.

Historically, there is a problem with turnout. At the last election, only 38 per cent of elegible people voted.

Labour faces the prospect of losing even more seats, and could try to govern with just 27 seats in the 60-seat assembly.

This is because the other parties, Plaid Cymru, the Tories and the Lib Dems are thought to be unlikely to form a rainbow coalition.

However historically, there is a problem with turnout. At the last election, only 38 per cent of elegible people voted.

Key players

Jack McConnell
The current first minister and head of the Labour Party in Scotland Jack McConnell is a former maths teacher from the Isle of Arran.

He co-ordinated Labour's successful campaign in the devolution referendum and became the first first minister to have spent his entire career in Scotland, rather than Westminster.

He's a shrewd operator, who has weathered a few scandals, but he faces a strong challenge.

Alex Salmond
The long-standing SNP leader has a good chance of becoming first minister.

He stood down in 2000, after ten years at the helm of the party but was overwhelmingly reelected in 2004. He has been a Westminster MP since 1987.

Though originally a hardliner, he has shown a more pragmatic streak in recent years, agreeing to campaign in favour of devolution, despite the fact that some SNP politicians saw it as a compromise that could delay the arrival of full independence.

Rhodri Morgan
A political veteran who saw off the Labour Party's preferred nominee for the post of first secretary, the 65-year-old has pledged to continue his fight.

Morgan is a popular candidate who has been careful to keep his distance from the party in Westminster, and has managed to keep the Nationalist challenge at bay.