Q&A: population growth

So what kind of numbers are we looking at?

Researchers at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) look at past and present trends to work out what future trends might be.

By the year 2031, ONS researchers predict, the UK's population will grow from 60 million in 2006, to 65 million in 2016, and pass 70 million in 2028.

Why is that?

Future fertility, life expectance and migration are all taken into account when working out future population.

Officials said their long-term assumptions of these factors are all higher than those made in the previous projections - migration estimates , for example, have increased from a net increase of 145,000 or more per year in 2004 to 190,000 or more each year.

Aren't populations always growing, though?

Not always. In some countries, birth rates have now dropped below replacement rates, and governments are concerned about a dwindling population.

In Britain, the increases are less to do with fertility and more with an ageing population and increased migration.

How much of this is down to immigration?

Researchers are using recently increased ONS data on immigration. Last month the organisation said the number of people migrating to the UK had increased by 45,000 a year to 190,000.

The ONS said it expected net migration to increase by an average 220,000 per year between 2006 and 2011, slowing to growth of around 190,000 per year until 2031.

All this, along with the fact people are generally getting fatter, too, is going to lead to a very cramped island indeed.

Which areas of the UK will see the largest growth?

According to the ONS, England will grow the fastest with an increase of 8 per cent by 2016, compared to 7 per cent in Northern Ireland, 5 per cent in Wales and just 3 per cent in Scotland.

How does life expectancy relate to this?

The study revealed the changing structure of Britain's ageing society as people live longer.

Researchers said the average age is expected to rise from 39.6 in 2006 to 40.6 in 2016 and to 42.6 by 2031.

The number of people of state pensionable age is projected to increase by 7.2 per cent from 11.3 million in 2006 to 12.2 million in 2010.

Researchers said that this year, for the first time ever, the population of people claiming state pensions will exceed the number of children.

By 2016, there will be 400,000 more people claiming state pensions than children, rising to more than two million in 2031.

In 2006 there were 3.3 people of working age for every person on a pension, but this ratio will slowly decline.

Despite the forthcoming change of the age at which women can claim state benefits, it will decline to 2.9 by 2031.

Can we be sure of these estimates?

The ONS said the figures are based on demographic trends and cannot predict the impact of future government policies or changing economic circumstances.

A spokesman said: "They simply provide the population levels and age structure that would result if the assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration levels were to be realised in practice."

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