Why Hillary can't bypass Iowa
Updated on 09 October 2007
There's one word that is surely haunting Hillary Clinton's election campaign: Iowa.
She might be the front runner but Hillary Clinton certainly can't afford to relax.
Despite that clutch of polls giving her anything up to a 20 point lead, and that $27m she banked last quarter, there's one word - Iowa - that is surely haunting her campaign.
For the Hawkeye state now looks like the last chance for Hillary's opponents to stop her automatic march to the nomination next year.
Clinton's team originally thought of skipping Iowa altogether, much as her husband did back in '92. But her rivals were doing so well there - that strategy started looking like a bad idea.
It's still clinging onto its position as the first-in-the-nation caucus - even if there's no actual date set yet, thanks to the mad rush to frontload the primary calendar.
More importantly both Barack Obama and John Edwards have been campaigning aggressively and polling extremely well.
Clinton's team originally thought of skipping Iowa altogether, much as her husband did back in '92. But her rivals were doing so well there - that strategy started looking like a bad idea.
And now, although the latest poll in the Des Moines Register shows Hillary marginally ahead, the DNC chair Terry McAuliffe warned last week: "We're not in first place here".
Obama has spent the most cash in Iowa on TV ads and campaign events: some $3m so far and more to come. He's got to be serious about Iowa; for his still underdog candidacy, it's critical.
His wife Michelle admitted recently "If Barack doesn't win here, it's all a dream".
And Edwards has been blitzing the state, visiting an astonishing 79 out of 99 Iowan counties. It's paying off, too - he's doing far better there than anywhere else in the country.
It's hard to predict how the caucuses will decide. Turnout can be low and many voters don't even make up their minds till Christmas, just days before the event.
But however maverick, however unrepresentative, Iowa's unique caucus system remains hugely influential in the race for the nomination.
So Hillary Clinton, far from bypassing Iowa, has instead spent months trying to win it over.
Some cheer, then, with the Register poll putting her seven points ahead, but that still leaves plenty of room for Obama and even Edwards to catch up. And well she knows it.
The survey also shows that although she is seen as strongest on issues like leadership, toughness and intelligence, there are plenty of negatives too.
It's that same old problem: many voters still see her as far too polarising to win.
In the end, as with New Hampshire, the battle for Iowa will come down to good political organisation and plain hard graft.
"Organise, organise, organise - and then get hot at the end" goes the old political mantra.
And that's exactly how all three Democrat frontrunners are playing it, for now.
